Bitcoin climbed after weaker U.S. labor data eased expectations for another near-term rate increase, giving risk assets a lift.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 economists had expected. The previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
Wall Street's takeaway, as cited by Decrypt, was that the pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates had eased. That reading typically supports risk assets such as Bitcoin. The report said the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization jumped on the macro move, with charts suggesting there may still be room for gains during October.
Before the latest jobs report, the Fed had raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16 in a unanimous vote, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Decrypt noted that it was the first hike since 2023. Higher rates usually mean less cheap money available for investment, but the article said Bitcoin absorbed that shift better than Wall Street stocks.
Fed officials have since sounded less urgent. New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was 「no need for urgency」, while Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday that policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.
After the employment report, CME FedWatch showed the odds of a hike at the October meeting dropping to 14% from 70% earlier this week. Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad were aligned, pricing an 80% chance of a hold on October 28.
Crypto markets responded positively. Total crypto market capitalization rose above $3 trillion, up 2.5% over 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 71, in greed territory. ETF flows were positive at +$102 million on the day, and Bitcoin dominance was 59.1%.
Bitcoin nears the top of its range
Bitcoin was up 1.57% on the day, trading at $86,152.75 after opening at $84,824.05. The session high reached $87,173.15, just below the September high of $87,354.33. Decrypt described that level as the top of the current range and the yearly resistance bulls need to clear. The day's low was $84,492.18.
That September high came after a rally from the swing low of $74,977.57, a 16.5% advance. Since then, Bitcoin has traded sideways around that area, leaving traders focused on whether the market can break through.
Technical indicators remain constructive
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength regardless of direction. Readings above 25 are generally taken as confirmation that a trend is real. Bitcoin's ADX was 41.8. The directional lines also showed DI+ above DI-, indicating buyers remained in control and that the market was in a strong uptrend rather than a choppy phase. Decrypt also noted that very high ADX readings can mean a trend is already mature.
The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, track average prices while giving more weight to recent sessions. On the chart, the faster 50-day EMA was above the slower 200-day EMA, a bullish configuration that usually signals short-term momentum is running ahead of the longer trend. The shaded cloud below price had also stayed green since mid-August, acting as support.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures buying pressure on a 0 to 100 scale. At 68.1, it pointed to strong momentum, though it was approaching the 70 level where traders often begin taking profit.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator was listed as off, with a positive reading of 2.2. That suggested the compression phase that came before the move had ended and volatility had already expanded to the upside. Bitcoin was trading at 78.4% of the band range, in the upper half.
What traders are watching next
Decrypt said the technical setup still leaned bullish, but not without trade-offs. RSI was close to overbought territory, and the macro backdrop was not fully dovish. The article said a December rate hike remained the market's base case, while yields were still elevated.
For traders, the next signal is whether Bitcoin can post a daily close above $87,354 while ADX remains firm. That is the level the market would likely need to see cleared before calling it a breakout. The Fed's October 28 meeting is the next major macro event on the calendar.
Decrypt added that the views and opinions in the article were for informational purposes only and did not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.