Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since November 2022, but Bear Market Risk Remains

Bitcoin Supply Metric Flashes First Buy Signal Since November 2022, but Bear Market Risk Remains

N
News Editor
2026-07-03 11:34:04
Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin supply dynamics have produced their first “buy” signal since November 2022, suggesting the 2026 bear market may be moving toward a late-stage phase. The signal comes from a supply-related onchain metric and is notable because it is the first such reading seen since the prior cycle low period. However, the analysis did not frame the development as a confirmed bottom. Instead, it cautioned that BTC price could still move lower even as supply conditions begin to improve. In practical terms, the report highlights a divergence that often matters in crypto market structure: onchain supply may start to turn before spot price fully stabilizes. As a result, the metric is more useful as a cycle-positioning tool than as a short-term trading confirmation. The market context remains bearish, and the signal should be read as an early structural shift rather than proof that a new uptrend has already begun.
BitcoinBTCOnchain MetricsSupply DynamicsBear MarketBuy SignalMarket Analysis

Onchain supply dynamics show an early shift

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin supply dynamics are pointing to a possible late-stage phase of the 2026 bear market. A supply-related metric has now printed its first “buy” signal” since November 2022, marking the first such reading during the current downcycle. From a market-structure perspective, that kind of signal is typically watched for signs that selling pressure, coin distribution, or broader holder behavior may be starting to change.

A buy signal does not confirm a price bottom

The report also made clear that this development should not be interpreted as confirmation that BTC has already bottomed. The analysis warned that Bitcoin price could still move lower even after the signal appeared. In other words, an improving supply backdrop may indicate that the market is getting closer to the end of the bear phase, but it does not automatically imply an immediate reversal in spot price. Onchain improvement and price confirmation do not always happen at the same time.

Cycle signal matters, but bearish conditions still define the market

The broader framing remains cautious: the market is still being described as a continuing bear market. That means the signal is best understood as a cycle-level observation rather than evidence that a fresh bullish trend is already underway. For professional market participants, the takeaway is that supply-side metrics may be improving, while price risk remains unresolved. Source: Cointelegraph. Original URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-supply-metric-prints-first-buy-signal-since-late-2022-as-bear-market-continues?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound .

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
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