Bitcoin climbed 3.9% since midnight UTC to trade at $71,000 on Tuesday, with ether (ETH) back above the $2,000 level it had struggled to hold recently. Equities and precious metals also rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Iran would conclude "very soon," sending the dollar and oil sharply lower. The Dollar Index (DXY) slid from Monday's high of 99.7 to 98.5, while crude fell back under $100 a barrel.
Crypto's inverse correlation to the greenback suggests a breakout could be brewing if DXY continues to weaken. Since the conflict started, bitcoin has outperformed stocks and gold, partly restoring its haven narrative. But the market remains in a clear downtrend from early October, marked by lower highs and lower lows. To flip that trend, BTC needs to reclaim $98,000 with established support along the way.
Derivatives positioning
Futures open interest for HYPE, the top 24-hour performer, jumped 14% to $1.41 billion, per Coinglass. The metric hit 40 million HYPE, still near recent lows. BTC and ETH open interest both rose over 5%, outpacing spot gains — a sign of fresh capital flowing in during the rally. Tether gold (XAUT) OI kept shrinking below 110K XAUT, hinting at rotation out of gold-linked assets.
Annualized perpetual funding rates for most tokens remain slightly positive, with only ZEC and SUI showing negative rates. Adjusted cumulative volume deltas point to aggressive buying across major coins except BCH, XMR and XAUT. Both BTC and ETH's 30-day implied volatility indices (BVIV and EVIV) fell over 4%, reflecting traders pricing out uncertainty after oil's retreat. Still, protective puts on Deribit are pricier than bullish calls across all tenors. Market maker positioning suggests volatility could spike if BTC breaks above $75,000. Block flows saw demand for BTC straddles and call spreads; ETH traders chased risk reversals.