Bitcoin jumped to $81,500 after a $450 million short squeeze, marking a sharp recovery. On Binance, $1.98 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases were executed within two hours, a move typically associated with aggressive trend-following investors.
Key Technical Level: $82,000 Now Critical
The rally pushed Bitcoin above the $77,500 average cost basis for short-term holders and broke through a resistance level not seen since November. Jeff Park, Bitcoin portfolio manager at ProCap, said on X that a sustained move above $82,000 could accelerate upside momentum. Technical analysts set $94,800 as the next target if that level is cleared.
Accumulation by Long-Term Holders and ETF Inflows
On-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders added 331,000 BTC (worth roughly $26.7 billion) over the past 30 days – a group known for low selling pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows totaling $1.18 billion, with $532 million entering on Monday alone. Combined AUM for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs now stands at $147 billion.
Miners: Hashrate Down, Hash Price Up
The total hashrate declined 13% last quarter, but hash price – a key profitability metric – rose to $37, its highest since late January. Leading mining firms are diverting profits into AI data centers, improving overall profitability amid improving market conditions.
Short-Term Targets and Risks
Analysts eye the $84,000 level, where an unfilled CME futures gap exists. Buying interest has consolidated near $84,600 in spot markets. Maintaining above $82,000 could set a short-term target of $94,800. However, Bitcoin remains 36% below its all-time high of $126,200 (October 2025) and remains highly correlated with the Nasdaq 100. Rejection at $86,000–$88,000 or slowing ETF inflows could trigger a pullback to the $77,500–$78,000 range.
Well-known commentator Rekt Capital expressed skepticism, expecting 2026 to be a bearish year and the real bottom likely in 2027. Options data shows a 50% shift in positioning over a short period, pointing to rising bullish sentiment.