Bitcoin held near the $78,000 area as the market digested the fallout from the Binance hack. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said BTC briefly tested $76,000 on Oct. 30, and more than 36,600 loss-making BTC were transferred to exchanges by short-term holders within 24 hours. At press time, BTC was trading at $78,531, up 0.2% over the past 24 hours and down 1.7% over seven days.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s October return came in at -7.32%, making it the fourth-worst October on record. Data compiled by 21Shares showed Bitcoin fell a little more than 2% in the 24 hours after the incident, far less than the roughly 26% drop seen after the FTX event. Binance had previously set aside more than $6.34 billion in corporate funds to absorb losses tied to the theft. On Nov. 1, the exchange said it had covered $6 billion of that amount, while about $3 billion in assets had been frozen on-chain. Binance resumed withdrawals in phases starting at 14:00 on Nov. 1, and net outflows reached about $3.64 billion by 23:30 that night, equal to 2.10% of its total assets.
ETF flows stay weak as traders watch the $78,000 level
ETF demand remained soft. SoSoValue data showed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $203 million last week, covering Oct. 26 to Oct. 30 in U.S. Eastern Time. On Oct. 30 alone, net outflows totaled $643 million, ending a four-day streak of net inflows.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said the Coinbase Premium Index had fallen to a four-year low. The last time it was this low was after the FTX collapse in November 2022. In his view, market sentiment has turned pessimistic enough to qualify as a bullish signal.
On-chain analyst Murphy said that as of Oct. 31, 51.3% of short-term BTC holder supply was sitting at an unrealized loss. He added that 1.145 million BTC were concentrated in the high-cost band between $78,000 and $86,000, while buying support had emerged in the $75,000 to $78,000 range.
Trader views were split. Skew said $78,000 was a key level, with active buying over the past day driven by short covering in perpetual futures. Minga, by contrast, said BTC opened the week near $78,700 on Monday and then met resistance and pulled back.
Several near-term catalysts are now in focus. Michael Saylor posted the Bitcoin Tracker again on Sunday, and Strategy typically discloses a new round of purchases on Monday. As of Oct. 25, the company held 848,517 BTC. Binance co-CEO Richard Teng had also said a full proof-of-reserves report would be released on Monday. In the U.S., the midterm election is scheduled for Nov. 3. Coin Bureau said Bitcoin bottoms in the past three cycles all appeared shortly after the midterm election.
Ethereum posts its second-worst October since 2016 as whales buy below $2,300
Ethereum traded at $2,302, up 0.8% over 24 hours, though its 30-day decline still stood at 14.1%. CryptoRank data showed ETH fell 16.1% in October, its second-worst October since 2016, ending a three-month run of gains.
Institutional money kept moving out. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $432 million last week, marking a fifth straight week of outflows. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $391 million of that weekly total. Glassnode said U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have now posted net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since launch.
On-chain activity showed large buyers stepping in below $2,300. Lookonchain tracked one whale spending $62.97 million over the past five hours to buy 27,553 ETH at an average price of $2,286. Ember reported that another address withdrew USDC from Kraken and then bought 15,216 ETH at an average price of about $2,279.
A hacker previously tied to the theft of Pando Rings bought 7,548 ETH at $2,249 after the Binance-driven sell-off, then moved 4,000 ETH through Tornado. There was selling as well: the founder of POAP sold 2,000 ETH at an average price of $2,269.
In derivatives, ETH open interest on OKX rose from $1.799 billion to $1.853 billion. The long-short account ratio fell from 2.54 to 2.08, and the funding rate stood at 0.0049%.
SOL ETF outflows hit a record as traders track the day’s agenda
Among other major tokens, spot SOL ETFs posted net outflows of $71.4748 million last week, the highest on record. One whale moved 1.49 million SOL, worth about $149 million, to multiple exchanges over the past 10 days. SOL was trading at $95.094, down 5.4% over seven days.
Items on the market’s watchlist today include:
- TSV, the tokenized securities trading platform under Canton, plans to launch tokenized stock trading for CNTN
- The release of Polymarket Protocol V2 has been delayed to Nov. 9
- Initia L1 and its rollups are scheduled to resume operations
- Web3 game developer Unagi has entered judicial liquidation, with bidding closing today
- Bitway (BTW) will unlock about 101 million tokens worth roughly $114 million
- Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 40.63 million tokens worth about $7.7 million
- Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, BEAM, TRUMP, G
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $643 million yesterday
- Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net outflows of $156 million yesterday
The biggest gainers among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization were JST, up 2.3%; STX, up 2.2%; TRX, up 1.4%; OKB, up 1.3%; and ZEC, up 1.2%.
South Korea leads Asia while Japan slips on earnings misses
Intel fell about 29% on Friday after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.2%. Asia-Pacific chip stocks opened lower on Monday. By the middle of the session, most major markets had recovered except Japan, while South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China all finished higher.
South Korea’s benchmark index reversed from an early decline and closed up 2.24% at 5,859.08. Institutional investors were net buyers of about KRW 1.23 trillion during the session, providing the main support for the rebound. SK Hynix rose 3.81% and Samsung Electronics gained 1.78%. Shipbuilders were the strongest group of the day after Hanwha Ocean was reported to have secured its first U.S. Navy vessel construction order, sending the stock up 9.80%. HD-Hyundai Marine Engine jumped 16.74%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.33% to 63,081.86. The drag came mainly from earnings disappointments. Kioxia plunged 15.78% after its profit outlook missed expectations, shaving about 150 points off the Nikkei by itself. SCREEN Holdings dropped 18.96% after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly results. Tokyo Electron, which posted stronger earnings, rose 5.16%, highlighting a sharp split within chip names.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.42% and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.25%. The tech gauge had fallen 11.73% in October, and internet names staged a rebound from oversold levels. Xiaomi climbed 6.04% and Tencent added 2.19%. China Literature jumped 15.64% as AI comic drama names gained traction.
Mainland China’s three major indexes all closed higher. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.08% to 3,638.03, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.87%. More than 4,600 stocks advanced across the market, while turnover expanded to RMB 1.78 trillion. Sentiment was lifted by news that regulators had called in banks and brokerages to discuss measures supporting the capital market. AI comic drama, film and gaming shares led the gains. Bank stocks, which had previously attracted safe-haven flows, pulled back, with Bank of Shanghai dropping 8.81% after a sharp fall in third-quarter profit.
