Bitcoin traded near $64,350 on Friday and finished the week little changed, while ether held at $1,903 and most large tokens barely moved, according to CoinDesk data. The market was waiting for the US payrolls report rather than finding direction on its own.
The overnight tone was less friendly. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $83.61 after reports said Iran plans to restrict US and Israeli ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demand compensation from countries it considers hostile before allowing passage. That stalled the deal that had been weighing on oil prices.
Higher crude brings back inflation worries, which is the kind of backdrop that keeps the Federal Reserve leaning tight. During the US session, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points on the move.
That is the macro chain bitcoin has been stuck in all summer: oil higher, inflation firmer, yields and the dollar stronger, and financial conditions tighter for risk assets. The dollar just logged its best day in two weeks, the opposite of the easier setup bitcoin bulls want.
Today’s jobs number is the release that matters. A soft reading would revive the case for Fed easing and could give bitcoin room above its current range. A strong one, combined with rising oil, would give hawks another reason to hold firm, and the range that has held since May could hold again. The key reaction to watch is in yields, not just the headline figure.