Bitcoin broke above $70,000 in early trading hours in Beijing on Aug. 20 after remarks by Donald Trump at a White House gathering with crypto industry executives lifted sentiment, with BTC up more than 10% over 24 hours. The rebound has revived a familiar debate: is the move the start of a renewed bull run, or just a local top inside a broader recovery attempt?
Odaily’s review of 13F filings suggests large financial institutions had already started positioning before the rally. In the second quarter of 2026, Bitcoin fell 14%, yet institutional holdings rose 7.5%, according to the figures cited in the report. The buildup happened before the latest move back above $70,000.
The main vehicles were spot Bitcoin ETFs and stocks tied to Bitcoin treasury strategies.
Institutional ETF holdings rose even as total ETF Bitcoin fell
Bitcoin analyst Root said total ETF holdings fell from 1,297,010 BTC to 1,211,322 BTC in Q2, a 6.6% decline. Institutional holdings, however, rose from 498,389 BTC to 535,723 BTC, up 7.5%. That pushed the institutional share of ETF-held Bitcoin from 38.4% to 44.2%, a record high.
The shift points to a clear split in behavior during a weak quarter for crypto prices: retail investors reduced Bitcoin ETF positions, while institutions added exposure near the lows.
The buying was not broad-based across every holder. Odaily said the number of institutions with Bitcoin holdings fell from about 2,000 in the first quarter to nearly 1,900 in the second quarter, a decline of roughly 6.8%. Still, 17 of the top 25 institutional Bitcoin ETF holders increased positions in Q2.
Root also counted nine institutions that initiated allocations worth more than 100 BTC during the quarter.
Jane Street: roughly $600 million more in spot ETF exposure, plus a major MSTR increase
As of June 30, Jane Street disclosed about $990 million in spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, including about $828 million in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, or IBIT, equal to roughly 24.9 million shares.
In the first quarter of 2026, Jane Street had disclosed only about $225 million in spot Bitcoin ETF holdings, or roughly 5.9 million shares. On that basis, its spot ETF exposure rose by about $600 million in Q2.
The firm also sharply increased its Strategy, or MSTR, stake. The position rose from 209,833 shares worth about $26.2 million in Q1 to 2,677,622 shares worth about $232.76 million in Q2. That was an increase of around 2,467,789 shares, or about 1,176%, with added value of more than $200 million.
Using the report’s calculation, Jane Street increased Bitcoin-linked exposure by more than $800 million in the second quarter.
Odaily noted that 13F filings show only long positions in common stock and do not include options or short positions. Because Jane Street is a quantitative trading and market-making firm, its actual net Bitcoin exposure could differ from the gross long positions disclosed in the filing. Even so, the size of the reported long-side increase stands out.
BlackRock: added about $290 million in Bitcoin-linked exposure through MSTR, IBIT and ASST
BlackRock increased positions in three Bitcoin-related assets in Q2: Strategy (MSTR), IBIT and Strive (ASST).
Its MSTR position rose from about 17.75 million shares to 19,394,284 shares, valued at about $1.69 billion at quarter-end. The increase was 1,640,399 shares, worth about $238 million, for a quarter-on-quarter gain of 9.24%.
BlackRock also added 1,024,742 shares of its own spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, worth about $41.7 million. Its total IBIT holding reached 15,034,046 shares at the end of Q2, worth about $500 million.
In addition, BlackRock increased its position in Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST), adding 1,636,854 shares worth about $17.86 million. That was a 45.1% increase, taking the total to 5.266 million shares valued at $57.5 million. The Odaily report said Strive currently holds more than 20,000 BTC.
Combined, BlackRock added about $290 million in Bitcoin-linked exposure in the second quarter.
JPMorgan: about $85.6 million more in IBIT
JPMorgan’s main addition in Q2 was also BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF. Its IBIT holding rose by 2,104,944 shares, worth about $85.6 million, a 25.35% increase.
The bank’s position grew from 8,302,691 shares in Q1 to 10,407,635 shares in Q2, with total value reaching about $356 million.
UBS: call option exposure on IBIT jumped 24-fold
UBS raised direct IBIT holdings by 12% to 407,890 shares, worth about $13.6 million. The figure remained below its level at the end of 2025, around 540,000 shares, but was above the roughly 364,000 shares reported for Q1 2026, which Odaily read as a sign of a higher allocation preference toward Bitcoin.
The bigger change came in options. UBS’s IBIT call option exposure surged 24 times in Q2, from about 80,000 shares to 1.95 million shares. Put option exposure fell about 53%, dropping from around 303,000 shares to about 143,000 shares.
That shift points to a more bullish structure, with more upside exposure and less downside protection. Odaily also cautioned that 13F reports do not disclose strike prices, maturities or cost basis, and the positions may reflect client business, market making or hedging activity rather than a pure proprietary directional view.
Paul Tudor Jones: a break in the IBIT selling trend that started in 2025
Tudor Investment, the firm led by hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, also raised its IBIT stake in the second quarter of 2026. Its holding reached 688,529 shares worth $22.9 million at quarter-end, up from 579,083 shares in the prior quarter.
That was an increase of 109,446 shares worth about $4.45 million, or 18.9%.
The amount added was modest in dollar terms, but it marked an end to a pattern of cutting IBIT exposure that had continued since 2025. Odaily described the move as consistent with a constructive but still watchful stance on Bitcoin.
At the end of 2024, Tudor Investment’s IBIT position had once peaked above 8 million shares, worth about $427 million. The current holding remains roughly 91% below that peak.
Harvard endowment: no increase, but no more trimming either
The Harvard University endowment’s 13F filing showed its spot Bitcoin ETF position was unchanged at 3,044,612 shares of IBIT at the end of Q2, valued at about $101.4 million.
That did not add new exposure, but it ended two straight quarters of selling. Odaily said the endowment’s IBIT position had peaked at about 6.81 million shares in Q3 2025, worth about $443 million. It then cut the stake by 21% in Q4 2025 and by about 43% in Q1 2026 before holding steady in Q2.
The report characterized the pause as a constructive wait-and-see signal.
Market views split on whether Bitcoin has already bottomed
Positioning data tell one part of the story. The other is how institutions and market observers interpret the current stage of the cycle. Odaily grouped the views into two camps: those who think the bear market is over, and those who say the bottom still is not confirmed.
The bullish camp: some say the bear market has ended
After Bitcoin moved back above $70,000, F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun reposted his Jan. 28, 2023 message on X titled “Missing the bear market” and said, “The bear market is over.”
Strive CEO Matt Cole offered a broader macro case. He said Bitcoin could be entering a historic setup for gains because the U.S. dollar index has been in a structural downtrend and may be nearing a larger leg lower. In his view, the next five to seven years could become one of the most favorable macro periods in Bitcoin’s history. He also said Bitcoin’s current price still looks low from a historical perspective and that Strive is willing to keep buying at these levels.
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, gave a specific year-end target. He said Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026 as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-dated Treasury market. He added that $65,500 was a key technical resistance level and that a break above it could mean the cycle low is already in place.
10x Research, in its latest report, also said Bitcoin had moved into a breakout after months of range-bound trading. Its preferred trade this month was buying a $70,000 strike call option. According to the report, that option was priced at only about $300 on Aug. 5, fell to $30 three days ago, then surged as high as $1,600 before trading around $1,300.
10x Research also said a better structure was a September call spread using the $70,000 and $80,000 strikes, which it described as more bullish while still leaving some flexibility.
The cautious camp: others still see a local rebound, not a confirmed floor
Even with Bitcoin back above $70,000, some market participants remain careful.
CZ said at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that Bitcoin’s “super cycle” has not played out and that the market is still in a bear phase, continuing to follow a relatively strict four-year cycle. He also said, however, that the current environment is the friendliest the industry has seen in his 12 years in the space.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said retail demand for Bitcoin is now close to the highest level of the past two years. Historical data, he argued, show a clear link between rising retail demand and local Bitcoin tops. In his view, that may reflect impatient retail behavior, which means traders should stay more sensitive to volatility.
Adam from Greeks.live Research told investors who missed the move that implied volatility was still 32% after Bitcoin crossed $70,000. He said seller liquidity remained ample and buyers still had many trading opportunities.
VanEck said in its latest report that Bitcoin is showing “capitulation signals” similar to those seen near the end of past bear markets, but the market bottom is not yet fully confirmed. Of the 12 Bitcoin capitulation indicators it tracks, eight have entered extreme territory. Those measures mainly capture market stress through price drawdowns, miner profitability and the share of holders sitting on losses.
Still, VanEck said past performance does not show those signals reliably mark a short-term bottom. Historically, when eight to 12 indicators triggered at the same time, Bitcoin’s average forward return was about 12.8% over 90 days and about 32% over 180 days. Both were below its longer-run averages of 15.2% over 90 days and 36.3% over 180 days. The firm said the signal has shown relative value only over a one-year horizon and cannot guide longer-term positioning.
Glassnode also maintained a cautious view. It said Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains in a “capitulation phase,” with the short-term holder cost basis down to about $68,500, below the true market mean of about $75,800.
At the same time, peak relative unrealized losses in this cycle were about 25%, well below the more than 60% seen during capitulation phases in earlier cycles. That suggests losses have been shallower this time, but spread more broadly across the market, which may require a longer clearing process. Glassnode said any current rebound should be treated more as a local bounce than as proof of a fundamental trend reversal.
The filings show institutions did add Bitcoin-linked exposure in Q2, especially the largest holders, while prices were still under pressure. What they do not show is consensus. Some see the move back above $70,000 as confirmation that the bear phase has passed. Others still read the market through capitulation metrics, rising retail demand and a rebound that may not yet amount to a lasting turn.