Bitcoin has risen nearly 10% so far in July, marking its strongest performance for the month in almost four years, but several market analysts say the move may resemble patterns seen during the 2022 bear market. According to the report, BTC rallied nearly 17% in July 2022 before falling about 14% in August and 3% in September.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin is broadly tracking its historical average for July, while noting that the third quarter has traditionally been one of the asset’s weakest periods, with an average gain of only about 6%. He pointed to declining market liquidity and trading volume as possible reasons for weaker Q3 performance.
Rekt Capital also said Bitcoin’s 2026 price action shows a high degree of similarity to prior bear market cycles. If that historical pattern repeats, BTC could keep its summer rebound going through the second half of July before facing another round of correction, according to the report, which cited Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% so far in July, its best showing for the month in almost four years, but several market analysts are warning that the current setup looks similar to the 2022 bear market and could weaken again starting in August.
Analysts compare the move with 2022
In 2022, Bitcoin climbed nearly 17% in July, then fell about 14% in August and 3% in September.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades said Bitcoin is now broadly in line with its historical average performance for July. He added that the third quarter has long been one of Bitcoin’s weakest quarters, with an average gain of only about 6%, and said fading market liquidity and trading volume could be an important reason for that soft Q3 trend.
Rekt Capital also said Bitcoin’s 2026 price action bears a strong resemblance to earlier bear market cycles. If history repeats, Bitcoin could extend its summer rebound through the second half of July before entering another correction.
The report cited Cointelegraph.
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