Bitcoin closed July up about 7.36%, outperforming what many investors had expected even as the market faced a string of negative developments. The report pointed to firmer expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike this year, higher U.S. Treasury yields, a sharp sell-off in AI-linked equities, and a security flaw involving the Coldcard hardware wallet.
According to CoinGlass data cited in the report, analysts said the market has already absorbed most of the forced selling that came with a broad deleveraging cycle. In the near term, they said the main drivers for price action are likely to be macroeconomic data and fund flows into crypto exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin holds up through a run of headwinds
Over the past few weeks, markets have been digesting the possibility of another Fed rate increase this year, rising Treasury yields, a steep pullback in AI stocks, and the security fallout tied to Coldcard. Even so, Bitcoin did not see the deep correction that some had feared. Instead, it kept consolidating above bear-market lows while other risk assets remained under pressure.
Bitfinex says earlier deleveraging changed market structure
Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin has been more resilient than equities largely because positioning in crypto had already been reset.
Before the Fed rate decision, leverage in crypto markets was already well below that seen in stocks, according to Bitfinex. The firm tied that to the period from late June to early July, when Bitcoin fell below $58,000 and derivatives markets went through a large wave of forced liquidations that cleared out many highly leveraged positions.
Since then, Bitfinex said average daily liquidations have remained below the $400 million to $500 million range that was common earlier this year. In its view, that shows the recent wave of macro pressure has not sparked another broad round of forced selling.
An analyst said, “Compared with high-leverage stock themes such as AI, crypto has fallen less because the forced selling pressure had already been released earlier.”
Coldcard incident puts self-custody risks back in focus
Beyond macro factors, the market has also been weighing the impact of the Coldcard hardware wallet security issue.
Galaxy Research said there have been three attack waves since last week, with a combined 1,367 BTC stolen, worth about $89 million. The incident has renewed debate over the security risks tied to self-custody.
Paul Howard, a director at trading firm Wincent, said the stolen assets have not been sold so far, meaning there has been no direct effect on market pricing yet. He added that if the hackers begin to liquidate those holdings later, that could still create short-term selling pressure for Bitcoin.
Howard said the episode is a reminder that while self-custody remains a core idea in crypto, it also comes with operational and security risks that cannot be ignored.
August focus shifts to payrolls data and ETF flows
Looking ahead, analysts in the report said attention is likely to return to macro signals.
Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said the market is moving into a new volatility phase as investors keep repricing across different expectations for rate cuts, a pause, or another hike. That has kept pressure on high-volatility assets.
He said high-beta assets, including Bitcoin, may continue to trade in a choppy range until the economic outlook becomes clearer.
Bitfinex said next week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be the most important macro indicator after the Fed decision, and it expects investors to keep a defensive stance.
Rather than focusing on another liquidation cascade, Bitfinex said the market is now watching whether spot Bitcoin ETF money will return in size once the Fed’s policy path becomes clearer. The firm said positioning is likely to stay defensive as long as rate-hike risk has not fully faded. The signal traders should watch, it added, is whether institutional investors show strong buying interest that is active and even price-agnostic.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said her base case for August is still range-bound trading. She said Bitcoin is unlikely to break out of consolidation in the short term unless real yields fall or spot Bitcoin ETF flows turn sustainably positive again.
Zhang added that the market can absorb a Fed hold, but if the dollar keeps strengthening, real yields keep rising, and ETF demand stays weak, the combination of those three factors would put greater pressure on Bitcoin.