July strength has not removed bear-market concerns
Bitcoin is posting its best July since 2022, yet traders are still comparing the current move to a bear-market script rather than a clean trend reversal.
CoinGlass data shows BTC/USD up 9.5% for the month so far, putting it on pace for a four-year record for July gains. Cointelegraph said the market’s reaction has drawn repeated comparisons to 2022, the last bear-market year for Bitcoin.
That year, BTC finished July up nearly 17% after losing 38% in the prior month. The rebound did not hold. Bitcoin dropped around 14% in August and then another 3% in September.
That backdrop has kept traders cautious even as price action improves in the short term.
Analysts say the second half of July could improve before a reversal
Daan Crypto Trades commented on X on Saturday that “$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early.”
He added that even when bull markets are included, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter on average, with gains of just 6%.
“This has to do a lot with slow markets, low liquidity and volumes during the Summer time,” he wrote.
Rekt Capital is also focused on seasonality. According to him, Bitcoin’s 2026 performance is tracking prior bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he told followers on X this week.
Cointelegraph previously reported that Rekt Capital expects August to wipe out July’s gains, setting up what he described as a more classic bear-market bottom later in the year.
$70,000 is a widely watched target for the current bounce
For the rest of July, $70,000 has become a popular upside objective among traders.
Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto YouTube channel, said while reviewing the daily chart: “Interesting few days ahead.”
Another trader said the $67,000 to $73,000 area could offer a short-entry zone, while calling for a “bullish July, then Bearish August until Q4.”
Daan Crypto Trades added: “Q4 is when the real volatility takes place for BTC (both directions).”
Cointelegraph had also flagged multiple onchain indicators that are now showing bear-market bottom signals for the first time in four years. At the same time, overall demand has shown only partial signs of recovery.