Crypto trader Killa said the current amount of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders at a loss has risen above the level seen during the FTX collapse and is now close to conditions seen in the 2018 bear market. In his view, that matters because historical cycle signals have not always behaved as expected. He noted that in the previous Bitcoin bull cycle, about 80% of cycle-top indicators were never triggered, which suggests bottom indicators may also fail to appear in a textbook way this time.
Killa also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price, which he said is currently around $50,000. In past cycles, market price has tested the long-term holder realized price, so a return to that area cannot be ruled out. Still, he said that should not be taken as a firm call that Bitcoin must revisit the level. His broader point was that traders should avoid relying mechanically on historical indicators when trying to define a market bottom. Even so, he said the degree of loss in the market now is already comparable to the FTX event period and the 2018 bear market.
BlockBeats reported on July 26 that trader Killa said the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders at a loss has now exceeded the level seen during the FTX collapse and is approaching the level associated with the 2018 bear market.
He argued that traders should not rely mechanically on historical signals to call a market bottom. In the previous Bitcoin bull cycle, roughly 80% of cycle-top indicators were never triggered, and he said a similar pattern could appear with bottom indicators in the future.
Killa added that Bitcoin’s realized price is currently around $50,000. In every past cycle, price at some point tested the long-term holder realized price, so a move back to that area remains possible. At the same time, he said that should not be read as a definite call that Bitcoin will return to that level.
He said many top indicators failed to trigger in the last cycle, and some bottom indicators may also fail in the next phase. Even so, according to Killa, the scale of losses in the market is already close to what was seen during the FTX event and the 2018 bear market.
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