Crypto analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, have now been cutting their holdings for seven consecutive weeks, yet the selling has not stopped BTC from moving higher. The market, he said, is still absorbing supply released by older coins coming back into circulation.
Data cited by Adler shows the LTH net position change indicator stayed positive from February through early August this year. In May alone, long-term holders added about 1.2 million BTC. That trend reversed on Aug. 17, when the indicator turned negative, and it has remained in distribution territory ever since.
As of Sept. 28, long-term holders had reduced holdings by 73,400 BTC, widening from a decline of 1,100 BTC a week earlier. Adler noted that this remains modest compared with the roughly 1.07 million BTC sold by long-term holders in November 2025. He added that if future selling expands into the hundreds of thousands of BTC while Bitcoin stops rising, it could signal that the market’s ability to absorb supply is weakening.
He also pointed to the LTH SOPR metric, which has stayed above 1 for a second straight week. The indicator reached 1.24 on Sept. 21, the highest level since January, and stood at 1.18 on Sept. 28, suggesting transferred BTC locked in about 18% realized profit over cost basis.
Odaily reported that crypto analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their holdings for a seventh straight week, but the selling has not yet blocked BTC from rising. The market is still absorbing supply released by long-term holders.
According to the data he cited, the LTH net position change indicator remained positive from February through early August this year. In May, long-term holders accumulated about 1.2 million BTC. The indicator turned negative on Aug. 17 and has stayed in a distribution phase for seven consecutive weeks.
As of Sept. 28, long-term holder positioning showed a reduction of 73,400 BTC, wider than the 1,100 BTC decline recorded a week earlier.
Adler said the current scale of selling remains relatively limited compared with the roughly 1.07 million BTC distributed by long-term holders in November 2025. If long-term holder selling were to expand again to several hundred thousand BTC while BTC price gains stall, that could indicate the market is losing some of its capacity to absorb supply.
He also highlighted the LTH SOPR metric. It has remained above 1 for a second straight week, indicating that long-term holders are taking profits. On Sept. 21, the metric rose to 1.24, its highest level since January this year. As of Sept. 28, LTH SOPR stood at 1.18, meaning the BTC being transferred realized about 18% profit relative to cost basis.
Current data suggests long-term holders are gradually exiting into strength as BTC rises, while new demand is still able to absorb the supply coming to market.
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