CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin long-term holders sharply increased distribution activity in late August as the market rebounded after a short squeeze. Between Aug. 18 and Aug. 28, the 30-day cumulative distribution volume for long-term holders, or LTHs, climbed from 174,500 BTC to 281,900 BTC, a 61.5% increase. Adler said the Aug. 28 reading marked the highest level since 2026.
He also pointed to a rise in LTH MVRV, which moved from 1.31 on Aug. 18 to 1.64 on Aug. 27, before holding at 1.60 on Aug. 31. According to Adler, that means the market value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders remained about 60% above their average realized value, showing that this cohort still held sizable unrealized gains even as distribution accelerated.
Adler said the rebound following the short squeeze lifted both profitability and token distribution speed for long-term holders, creating room for more profit-taking. If Bitcoin prices remain stable, he said, long-term holders may keep releasing supply, adding selling pressure to the market. A key question now is whether new demand can absorb that supply and whether elevated distribution from long-term holders will continue.
On Sept. 1, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, sharply increased distribution during the market rebound that followed a short squeeze.
According to Adler, the 30-day cumulative distribution volume for Bitcoin LTHs rose from 174,500 BTC on Aug. 18 to 281,900 BTC on Aug. 28, up 61.5%. He said the Aug. 28 reading was the highest level since 2026.
Adler wrote that the metric accelerated clearly during Bitcoin’s fast rebound after the short squeeze, indicating that long-term holders were using the price recovery to take profits.
LTH MVRV also moved higher
At the same time, LTH MVRV climbed from 1.31 on Aug. 18 to 1.64 on Aug. 27, and still stood at 1.60 on Aug. 31. Adler said this means the market value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders remained about 60% above their average realized value.
That, in his view, shows that long-term holders still had substantial unrealized profits even as distribution activity increased.
Market focus shifts to whether demand can absorb supply
Adler added that the post-short-squeeze rebound lifted both profitability and the pace of token distribution among long-term holders, creating conditions for additional profit-taking. If Bitcoin holds steady, he said, long-term holders may continue releasing supply, which could become an extra source of selling pressure.
He said the key issue for the market now is whether elevated distribution by long-term holders will persist and whether fresh buying can absorb the added supply. Otherwise, the market may face renewed price pressure.
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