Crypto analyst Axel Adler said on-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, have been gradually taking profit as BTC rises, while fresh demand is still absorbing the supply coming into the market. The pullback in LTH holdings has now lasted for seven straight weeks, but Adler said it has not yet stopped Bitcoin from moving higher.
He compared the current wave of distribution with November 2025, when long-term holders sold roughly 1.07 million BTC. By that measure, the present reduction remains relatively limited. Adler added that if LTH selling climbs back into the hundreds of thousands of BTC while Bitcoin’s price stops rising, that could indicate weakening market capacity to absorb supply.
The LTH net position change metric stayed positive from February through early August this year. In May alone, long-term holders added about 1.2 million BTC. The indicator turned negative on Aug. 17 and has remained in distribution mode for seven consecutive weeks. As of Sept. 28, long-term holder holdings had declined by 73,400 BTC, widening from a 1,100 BTC decrease a week earlier.
PANews reported on Oct. 6 that crypto analyst Axel Adler said data shows Bitcoin long-term holders, or LTHs, are gradually exiting in profit as BTC rises, while new demand is still strong enough to absorb the supply being released into the market.
According to Adler, long-term holders have now reduced their holdings for seven consecutive weeks. Even so, that selling has not yet blocked Bitcoin’s price from continuing higher, and the market is still taking in the supply released by LTHs.
Current distribution remains smaller than the November 2025 wave
Adler said the present reduction is still relatively limited compared with November 2025, when long-term holders cut roughly 1.07 million BTC from their holdings.
He added that if long-term holder selling reaches the scale of several hundred thousand BTC again in the future while BTC stops rising, that may signal that the market’s capacity to absorb supply is weakening.
LTH position change turned negative on Aug. 17
The long-term holder net position change metric remained positive from February through early August this year. In May, long-term holders accumulated about 1.2 million BTC.
The indicator turned negative on Aug. 17 and has stayed in reduction mode for seven straight weeks. As of Sept. 28, long-term holder holdings were down by 73,400 BTC, a wider decline than the 1,100 BTC reduction recorded a week earlier.
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