Bitcoin long-term holders have reduced their holdings for seven consecutive weeks, yet BTC has continued to move higher, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. The data point cited in the report shows that the long-term holder position change metric turned negative on Aug. 17 and has stayed below zero since then, suggesting persistent distribution from older coins.
On Sept. 28, that metric fell to -73,400 BTC, compared with just -1,100 BTC a week earlier. Even so, Adler said the scale of selling remains far below the -1.07 million BTC level seen at one point in November 2025. In other words, supply from long-term holders has picked up, but not to the same extent as in that earlier period.
At the same time, LTH SOPR has remained above 1 for two straight weeks and reached 1.18 on Sept. 28. That indicates long-term holders who recently moved coins realized an average profit of about 18% relative to their cost basis. Adler’s read is that long-term holders are mainly taking profits into strength for now. The setup becomes more concerning if the pace of selling expands while Bitcoin’s price stops rising or starts to fall.
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have reduced their holdings for seven consecutive weeks, but the asset’s price has continued to climb, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. He said the market is still absorbing the added supply coming from those holders.
LTH position change has stayed negative since Aug. 17
Data cited by Adler shows the long-term holder position change metric turned negative on Aug. 17 and has remained there ever since. On Sept. 28, the indicator dropped to -73,400 BTC, versus -1,100 BTC a week earlier.
Even with that acceleration, the current scale of distribution is still much smaller than the -1.07 million BTC recorded at one point in November 2025.
LTH SOPR stays above 1 for two weeks
LTH SOPR has also remained above 1 for two straight weeks, reaching 1.18 on Sept. 28. That suggests long-term holders who recently moved Bitcoin realized an average profit of about 18% compared with their cost basis.
What Adler is watching next
Adler said long-term holders are mainly taking profits during the current upswing. The bigger risk, in his view, would be a further expansion in selling from this group while Bitcoin’s price stops rising or turns lower.
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