Bitcoin miners entered 2026 under mounting cost pressure, with the weighted average cash cost to produce one bitcoin climbing to nearly $80,000, according to a new CoinShares report. Q4 2025 was among the toughest quarters since the April 2024 halving, as BTC slid from around $124,500 in October to roughly $86,000 by late December. Network hashrate stayed near record levels, compressing profitability.
The hashprice — a key revenue metric — dropped to about $36–$38 per PH/s per day in Q4 and fell further to around $29 in early 2026. Three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, the first since July 2022, signaled miner capitulation. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, called it “one of the most challenging periods” since the last halving, driven by price pressure and rising network competition.
AI Contracts Surpass $70B, Some Miners Eye 70% Revenue from AI
Against this backdrop, the industry is rapidly pivoting to AI and high-performance computing (HPC). Publicly listed miners have announced over $70 billion in AI/HPC contracts, with some firms projected to generate up to 70% of revenue from AI by end-2026. The rationale: AI infrastructure offers more stable returns than bitcoin mining under current conditions. Yet the transition is uneven — some companies rebrand as data center operators, others stick to mining, and a third group pursues hybrid models.
Hashrate Outlook: 1.8 ZH/s by End-2026
The Bitcoin network itself remains resilient. Hashrate peaked above 1 zettahash per second in 2025 before pulling back to around 1,020 EH/s. CoinShares projects continued growth, reaching 1.8 ZH/s by end-2026 and 2 ZH/s by early 2027. Geographically, the United States, China and Russia still account for roughly 68% of global hashrate, while Paraguay and Ethiopia are gaining share.
Mining economics remain tightly tied to bitcoin’s price. A recovery toward $100,000 could lift hashprices and improve margins, while prolonged weakness may force more operators offline. For now, the sector appears to split into two camps: traditional miners and hybrid infrastructure firms balancing bitcoin production with AI workloads.