Bitcoin could be nearing a major turning point after a rare combination of onchain indicators flashed signals that have historically coincided with market bottoms, according to Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus.
In a recent report, the hedge fund explained that four proprietary onchain signals have aligned only five times during bitcoin's 15-year history. Each previous occurrence marked a cycle bottom, although Sullivan cautioned that this time still lacks final technical confirmation.
"We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," Sullivan said in an interview with CoinDesk. "Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days."
Diverging from Equities, Searching for a Bottom
Bitcoin is trading at $59,386 after losing 23% over the past month, extending its divergence from U.S. equities, which had climbed to record highs before also coming under pressure this month. If either scenario unfolds, Sullivan believes bitcoin could quickly decouple from broader financial markets.
The firm's outlook stands in contrast to cautious market sentiment following months of subdued price action. Billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont earlier this week said he has become "a little bit more worried" about bitcoin's future. Last month, billionaire investor Mark Cuban said he sold most of his bitcoin as it failed to act as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil and dollar weakness.
Narrative Trap and a Broken Liquidity Link
Sullivan argues investors have become too focused on narratives rather than market mechanics. "Narrative is nothing more than people trying to explain why a condition exists or persists instead of asking the correct question, which is how," he said.
One of the biggest puzzles, according to Sullivan, is bitcoin's breakdown in its historical relationship with global liquidity. He said bitcoin previously tracked changes in global money supply (global M2) with a relatively high degree of correlation. That relationship has now diverged for roughly nine months. The disconnect extends beyond bitcoin — precious metals have also failed to respond as historical macro relationships would suggest.
Understanding "how" rather than "why" may be the key. With onchain data already flashing historical bottom signals, the final confirmation — whether a breakout or a final flush — is expected within 90 days.