Bitcoin has fallen about 32% in the year since setting an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, according to a CoinDesk report cited by TechFlow. The token was trading at $85,453, a decline that is notably smaller than the one-year drawdowns seen after prior cycle tops. Data in the report showed that one year after the bull market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin had fallen 69.7%, 82.3% and 74.6%, respectively. The current bear market’s maximum drawdown was put at roughly 53%, versus the 77% to 85% declines commonly seen in earlier bear phases. HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun said the narrower decline reflects a shift in market structure, with ETFs, asset managers and corporate capital now playing a larger role than retail traders and leverage-heavy activity did in earlier cycles. Still, Primal Fund co-founder Griffin Ardern warned that the options market has yet to show clear bullish positioning and that rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields could still trigger another leg down in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has fallen about 32% in the year since it set an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, according to CoinDesk. It was trading at $85,453, with the decline running well below the level seen at the same point in earlier bear markets.
How this cycle compares with prior ones
Data cited in the report showed that one year after the bull market tops in 2013, 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin was down 69.7%, 82.3% and 74.6%, respectively. In the current cycle, the maximum drawdown has been about 53%, while previous bear markets usually saw peak-to-trough declines of 77% to 85%.
Why the decline may be less severe this time
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, said the narrower bear-market loss is mainly tied to changes in the makeup of market participants. Earlier cycles were driven more by retail traders and leveraged trading. This time, ETFs, asset managers and corporate capital have had a larger influence on the market, and institutional allocation and rebalancing mechanisms may help ease selling pressure.
Downside risks remain
Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, warned that the options market has not yet shown clear bullish bets. He added that continued increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields could still trigger a fresh round of declines in Bitcoin.
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