A total of 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Deribit at 4 p.m. Taiwan time on Friday, Aug. 28, carrying a notional value of about $6.44 billion. The batch accounts for 18.9% of the exchange’s Bitcoin open interest, meaning nearly one-fifth of outstanding positions will be settled at the same time.
Bitcoin was quoted at $78,938 in the report, down 1.41% over 24 hours but up 22.86% over the past seven days. The article described that as the strongest week in the past year, with the price having climbed from $62,853 on Aug. 17.
Put/call ratio shows a bullish tilt, but the skew runs deeper
According to Deribit Metrics data cited by CoinDesk, the expiring contracts consist of 44,639 calls and 37,061 puts, giving the set a put/call ratio of 0.83.
The report said that figure understates how one-sided the positioning has become. Based on Deribit real-time data cited in the article, only 537 of 37,427 put contracts had strike prices above spot, which means 98.6% of those bearish positions had no exercise value at expiry.
Put strikes were concentrated between $50,000 and $70,000, accounting for 66.7% of the total. The article framed those trades as protection bought when Bitcoin was still trading a little above $60,000, insurance that now expires worthless.
Calls showed the opposite pattern. Of 43,789 call contracts, 30,810 were already in the money, or 70.4%, with a notional value of $2.431 billion. On that basis, the gap between bullish and bearish positioning is wider than the 0.83 put/call ratio alone suggests.
Market maker hedging pressure is clustered between $72,000 and $80,000
Deribit Chief Risk Officer Shaun Fernando told CoinDesk that this expiry is “worth watching.”
He said nearly 20% of Bitcoin open interest is rolling off in the same week that the market has seen sharp moves. The volatility term structure has flipped from backwardation to contango, Bitcoin’s DVOL index is up 30%, and call-put skew has turned from negative to positive.
Fernando said nearly $500 million in notional value sits within 5% of spot, which should increase gamma hedging into expiry. That could lead to unusual pinning near key strikes, or faster moves once price breaks through them.
The largest concentration of call strikes is at $75,000, representing $236 million in notional value, followed by $80,000 at $157 million. The report also noted that the $72,000 strike holds 2,846 contracts worth $225 million in notional terms, nearly matching the $75,000 level.
The article added that Fernando’s “nearly $500 million” estimate may be conservative. Using a 5% band above and below spot, or $74,955 to $82,845, the actual concentration comes to 15,828 contracts with a notional value of $1.249 billion.
It described gamma hedging as the process by which market makers who sell options manage risk by buying and selling spot. The more open interest is clustered around certain strikes, the more frequently dealers may need to rebalance as spot moves, and those hedging flows can themselves affect price action.
Max pain sits at $68,000
The max pain level for this expiry is $68,000, the price at which option buyers as a group would suffer the largest losses. Compared with the reported spot price of $78,938, that is 13.8% lower.
The article said pinning effects usually require spot to hover close to major strikes in the first place. With only two days left before expiry, a drop back to the max pain level would require a 13.8% decline. On that basis, the report said the second scenario outlined by Fernando may be the more notable one to watch: acceleration after a breakout rather than pinning around a strike.
Three questions raised in the report
Will Bitcoin options expiry push the price lower?
Not necessarily. The report said max pain is at $68,000, 13.8% below the current price, making that magnitude of decline within two days less likely. Fernando said acceleration after a break of key strikes may matter more than pinning.
What is gamma hedging, and why does it pick up into expiry?
Market makers who sell options use spot trading to manage their risk exposure. When large open interest builds around specific strikes, even small spot moves can force more frequent position adjustments, and those trades can feed back into price action. The report said $1.249 billion in notional value is stacked within 5% of spot.
Does a 0.83 put/call ratio mean the market is bullish?
The report’s answer was yes in direction, but not in full magnitude. Of 37,427 put contracts, only 537 had strikes above spot, leaving 98.6% to expire worthless, while 70.4% of 43,789 calls were already in the money, representing $2.431 billion in notional value.