Bitcoin's trading activity has sunk to multi-year lows, according to K33 Research. The 30-day average daily volume of BTC/USDT perpetuals on Binance and Bybit dropped to $10.8 billion, the lowest since 2023, with only 5% of trading days seeing lower volume. Spot Bitcoin daily volume also slid 18% week-over-week to $1.8 billion, and 7-day volatility fell to 0.6%, the lowest since Christmas 2025. K33's head of research, Vetle Lunde, described the market as locked in a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle." Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin perpetuals remains elevated at roughly 300,000 BTC between June and August, above the 2025-2026 average, raising the risk of liquidation-driven volatility. Investors now await Wednesday's US July CPI report, with economists expecting 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and 2.5% core inflation. CME FedWatch implies about a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Bitcoin has been range-bound between $60,000 and $80,000 for six months, roughly 50% off its October 2025 record high.
Bitcoin derivatives trading has dried up to levels not seen in years, according to K33 Research. The 30-day average daily trading volume for BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit fell to $10.8 billion, the lowest since 2023. Only 5% of trading days have posted lower volume.
Spot markets are equally subdued. Bitcoin spot average daily volume declined 18% week-over-week to $1.8 billion, while 7-day volatility eased to 0.6% — the lowest reading since Christmas 2025.
Vetle Lunde, K33's head of research, described the combination of thin activity and a weak market as a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle." Open interest in Bitcoin perpetuals, however, remains elevated, averaging around 300,000 BTC between June and August. That sits above the 2025-2026 average, leaving room for a higher risk of liquidation-driven volatility.
Attention is turning to macro data. Markets are awaiting Wednesday's US July CPI report, with economists forecasting 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation and 2.5% core inflation. CME FedWatch data currently places about a 50% probability on a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.
Bitcoin has traded in a $60,000–$80,000 range for six straight months, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high.
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