Bitcoin’s latest rebound is shaping up more like a bull trap than the start of a durable upside move, according to a market analysis published by Decrypt on July 28.
The piece opened with a broad risk-off backdrop. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 8% at the open and triggered a circuit breaker, sending shockwaves through global markets before New York trading got fully underway. Bitcoin reacted quickly, sliding to $62,684 in early trading, attempting a brief recovery, and then stalling.
Decrypt’s morning market snapshot put BTC at $63,400, down 2.7% on the day. Ethereum was at $1,875, off 4.2%, while Solana traded at $73, down 4.4%. Over the past 24 hours, more than $670 million in crypto liquidations hit the market, including $533 million from long positions. The article framed that move as a sign that traders who had positioned for a rally were forced out.
Traditional markets were also under pressure. Oil fell 2%. Gold slipped 1%. Nasdaq futures turned negative as memory stocks weakened. In Decrypt’s telling, the one thing that did not move was the Federal Reserve, and that lack of a fresh policy signal was part of what left traders unwilling to add risk.
The Federal Open Market Committee was scheduled to meet over the current day and the next, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s rate decision and press conference due on July 29. Markets were expecting a hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Even so, Decrypt said traders were still reacting to Warsh’s June press conference, when his comments pushed rate-hike odds to 70% and sent 2-year Treasury yields up by 16 basis points. Against that backdrop, the article said traders were deleveraging instead of carrying positions through the event.
Index futures reflected a split tone. Dow futures were up 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.9% because of weakness in memory stocks. Crypto, the report argued, was taking a harder hit than most other risk assets.
Why Decrypt called the move a bull trap
Earlier in the session, Bitcoin’s brief push toward $66,921 had sparked optimism. Some bulls argued that the 200-day exponential moving average, or EMA, had held and that the market was regaining its footing. Decrypt rejected that read, saying the chart structure pointed the other way.
According to the article, BTC erased all of the previous week’s gains between Monday and Tuesday. That move canceled the bullish trend that had briefly developed and pushed price back into bearish territory, almost as forcefully as in the days before the bounce. Decrypt also highlighted that the current resistance line runs parallel to the earlier resistance that defined the drop from May to July.
On a broader view, using a daily chart stretching back to September 2025, the publication said the larger structure was even less supportive of a bullish case. Bitcoin has traded well below both the cloud and the 200-day average for months, the article said. Short green stretches have appeared from time to time, but each has been sold into, and the broader decline has remained intact. In Decrypt’s view, this week appears to be following the same pattern.
The analysis pointed to three parallel bearish resistance lines: a blue line running from November 2025 to April, a white line from May through July, and the resistance line now taking shape. Taken together, the article said, those lines reinforce the idea that the downtrend has not broken.
What the indicators show
Decrypt described the EMA setup as plainly bearish. EMAs are used to show where price sits relative to average levels over time, and the further price trades below them, the weaker the underlying trend tends to be. In this case, the 50 EMA is below the 200 EMA, and price is below both. The article identified that structure as a death cross and said it has been in place for months.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, stood at 46.5. Decrypt said a reading below 50 leans bearish, but 46.5 is not low enough to signal the kind of oversold condition that tends to pull in forced bargain buying, which the article said usually happens below 30. At the same time, it is not high enough to indicate meaningful buying momentum. The report’s reading on the indicator was neutral to slightly bearish.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator had been active for nine bars, which the article described as meaningful because it suggests volatility is building toward a directional move. Decrypt argued that these squeeze setups more often resolve in the direction of the existing trend than reverse it. Since the prior trend on the chart was down, and since the momentum reading inside the squeeze was only 0.25v, the article said there was little evidence of an imminent upside release.
How Myriad traders are positioned
Decrypt also cited pricing on Myriad, the prediction market built by its parent company Dastan. The question on that market was simple: does Bitcoin reach $84,000 first or $55,000 first? Traders were assigning 65.7% odds to $55,000 being hit before $84,000. The probability of an upside move to the higher target stood at 34.3%.
The article said that in March, before Warsh’s first hawkish press conference, that split had been close to the reverse. In Decrypt’s view, traders have spent months repricing Bitcoin’s downside risk, and the current technical picture is not giving them a reason to reverse that stance.
The bullish case, as framed in the article
Decrypt did note that a bullish outcome still exists, though it described the case as thin. A sharply dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve on the following day, especially if Kevin Warsh signaled patience rather than hikes, could provide the outside catalyst needed to push the squeeze upward and trigger a short squeeze through the $65,302 Fibonacci zone, the article said. It also mentioned that any revival of the Senate’s Clarity Act could add a regulatory tailwind.
At the same time, the report stressed that both of those outcomes would depend on events outside the chart. On the chart alone, the setup still leans bearish.
Decrypt’s bottom line
The publication concluded that Bitcoin’s move to $66,921 and the pullback that followed fit the pattern of a classic bull trap: a run into resistance, a failed breakout, a return toward prior lows, and a squeeze formation that appears to be setting up the next leg. Based on the indicators cited in the article, Decrypt said that next leg does not appear to be upward.
The article ended with a standard disclaimer that the views expressed were for informational purposes only and did not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.