Bitcoin is stuck near $64,000 and closing in on a macro trend line
Bitcoin kept trading around $64,000, with the report saying price is moving toward a macro downtrend line drawn from the $124,600 and $82,200 highs.
BTC has spent about two months moving sideways between $58,000 and $67,000. That pattern, the piece says, looks a lot like the market action seen from June to August 2022. Analyst Killa described the current setup as a key crossroads: either a failed breakout is underway, or a bottom has already formed. In his view, weekly confirmation matters more than short-term noise once price really breaks the macro trend line.
Liquidity pockets sit on both sides of the market
Trader Akash said there is a large pocket of short liquidity between $64,800 and $68,200, while dense long liquidity sits between $60,000 and $62,900. That leaves BTC boxed in on both sides.
Before a clearer trend starts, he said, the market may first run one side of the book. A move higher to clear upside liquidity, followed by a pullback toward $61,300, is not off the table.
BIT says demand is the real problem, with payrolls now the key catalyst
BIT says Bitcoin’s biggest problem right now is the lack of clear incremental demand. Continued ETF inflows, a positive Coinbase premium, or rising volatility could help confirm that demand is recovering. If not, and if price loses the short-term holder cost basis, the current low-volatility setup could turn into selling pressure.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is the main catalyst on the radar. The piece says Wall Street estimates for July payroll gains range from 18,000 to 83,000, which shows how wide the split is.
ETF inflows continue while Coinbase and crypto stocks move in different directions
Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $129 million of net inflows, extending the streak to four days. Spot Ether ETFs added $92.1509 million, marking a third straight day of net inflows. Coinbase will suspend trading for IDEX, LRC, OMNI, PIRATE and FIS on August 8.
Among the top 100 crypto assets by market cap, BEAT rose 31.3%, BTW gained 21.9%, LIT climbed 7.1%, ADA added 6.3% and ENA advanced 4.1%.
U.S. futures stay cautious before payrolls
U.S. stock-index futures were mixed and cautious ahead of the jobs report. Dow futures fell 0.09%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.32% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.08%.
BIT’s overnight data showed memory names bouncing slightly, with Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix up about 2%. Optical communications stocks kept extending gains: Lumen Technologies rose more than 5%, Lumentum gained nearly 3%, and Coherent plus the LYTE optics ETF were up more than 2%.
In earnings, Atlassian surged about 31%. Cloudflare beat on guidance even though net income missed expectations and jumped 16%. Twilio rose about 18% after topping estimates on both revenue and adjusted profit. Airbnb climbed more than 8% after raising full-year guidance.
Stocks fall, oil climbs, and AI valuations come under pressure
Major U.S. indexes fell on Thursday, with the Dow ending a five-day winning streak. Profit taking before payrolls and inflation worries tied to higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. Brent crude rose 5% to $82.9 after Iran moved to block the Strait of Hormuz. Google’s launch of a $25 billion jumbo debt sale also stoked concern about tighter liquidity, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield as high as 4.70% intraday.
As earnings season nears its end, investors are showing less tolerance for the “high spending, high valuation” AI story. Even though about 84.8% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, the market is focusing more on forward guidance, while worries grow that power, memory and capital spending will constrain compute expansion.
Bitmine chairman Tom Lee still said the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 this month, and he remains constructive on semiconductors, software and the Magnificent Seven. Michael Burry disclosed new short positions in Oracle at $144.63 and Nebius at $211.77.
Crypto stocks and miners take a hit
Crypto-related equities were under pressure in the broader macro selloff. BIT美股 data showed Coinbase and Robinhood fell 2.99% and 2.25% respectively. Stablecoin issuer Circle, meanwhile, kept Bernstein’s $140 target price, with the firm saying its second-quarter earnings crushed the bearish case.
Miners saw deeper losses. CleanSpark and MARA both dropped more than 5%. After the close, CleanSpark reported a 30% drop in fiscal Q3 revenue and a $240 million loss. MARA reported a second-quarter net loss of $611 million. The report also said Bitcoin hash rate has fallen 19% over nine months, the longest decline on record, as part of the power capacity shifts toward AI hosting.
Korean chip stocks extend their slump while Hong Kong AI names stay active
Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 5% this week, marking a seventh straight weekly decline and its longest losing streak since December 2022. It also fell for a second straight session, leaving the week down 5.1%. The pressure came from a pullback in memory chips, AI deleveraging and the unwind of crowded trades.
SK Hynix fell nearly 5% during the session. After the close, the company said it will pay a dividend of 375 won per share and will announce its shareholder return policy plan in the third quarter, while also considering additional return measures. Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim said the sharpest phase of the memory correction is near its end, kept a long-term bullish view on Samsung and SK Hynix, and said his target prices imply more than 60% upside. He also raised his 2026 EPS estimate for SK Hynix by 13%.
BIT says Korean memory stocks may get a near-term valuation rebound, but whether they have truly bottomed will still depend on gross margins, cloud orders and long-term supply deals.
Across Asia, traders stayed cautious ahead of payrolls. Hong Kong’s large-model and PCB themes were active, with MINIMAX-W up nearly 25% intraday and Zhipu up more than 17%. For the week, they rose 41.54% and 26% respectively. Earlier, Goldman Sachs lifted its 2026 annual recurring revenue forecast for Chinese AI large models from $10 billion to $13 billion and stayed constructive on names including MiniMax and Zhipu AI.
Two data points to watch next
At 8:30 p.m. on August 7, the U.S. will release July nonfarm payrolls. If the data is stronger than expected, markets may price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve in September, pushing up the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring growth stocks, gold and BTC. If the data is much weaker, a stagflation trade could gain traction as oil rebounds, and volatility across equities, bonds, FX and crypto could widen.
At 4:30 a.m. on August 8, the CFTC will publish its gold positioning report for the week ended August 5. Traders will be watching whether the recent rise in gold and silver came from CTA short covering or from active institutional buying. If active funds are absent, gold could face a gap in demand above $4,200 to $4,300. If buying continues, the metals rally may keep going.