Bitcoin's July Performance Data
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has experienced 13 July trading periods since 2013, recording 9 monthly gains and 4 losses—a win rate of approximately 69.2%. The strongest July gain occurred in 2020, with a 24.03% monthly surge, coinciding with global liquidity easing and the early DeFi Summer. The worst July loss was in 2014, a 9.69% decline amid the aftermath of the Mt.Gox collapse. As of the latest data, Bitcoin's average July return stands at 7.07%, with a median of 8.16%, indicating a relatively consistent positive distribution.
Ethereum's July Performance Diverges
Ethereum has recorded 10 July trading periods since 2016, with only 4 monthly gains and 6 losses—a win rate of 40%. The best July performance was in 2022, a 56.62% surge driven by anticipation of The Merge. The worst July was 2017, with a 27.29% loss during the ICO bubble deflation. Ethereum's average July return is 9.00%, but the median is -3.99%, highlighting that the average is skewed by a few extreme positive months, while most Julys lean bearish.
Seasonal Patterns and Market Implications
Bitcoin's July track record notably outperforms Ethereum's, with a positive median return suggesting a consistent mid-summer rally pattern. In contrast, Ethereum's negative median reflects greater vulnerability to short-term catalysts and higher volatility. Investors formulating July strategies should weigh these historical data points, but must also account for structural changes in 2024–2026 (e.g., spot ETFs, halving cycles) that could alter seasonal tendencies.