As Bitcoin continues to hit fresh all-time highs, analysts are turning to a variety of charting tools to predict the trajectory of the leading digital asset. Two of the most discussed frameworks are the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. Based on Bitcoin's price of approximately $103,046 as of May 9, 2025, this analysis examines what these models suggest for the future.
Stock-to-Flow Model: Scarcity Driving Price
The S2F model quantifies scarcity by comparing the existing stock of Bitcoin to its annual flow (new coins mined). With each halving event occurring every four years, the flow is cut in half, intensifying scarcity. The model posits that increased scarcity leads to higher prices.
Currently, the price trajectory is shaded red to orange on the S2F chart, indicating we are about one year past the last halving (red = 0 days to halving, blue = many days past). Historically, this post-halving phase has sparked vigorous rallies over the following 12–18 months. Bitcoin's market price is now closely aligned with the S2F projection, suggesting the asset is adhering to the model more faithfully than in previous cycles. Extrapolating historical patterns, the S2F model forecasts an exponential climb to around $275,000 by late 2026.
However, the model does not account for external shocks such as geopolitical events or macroeconomic changes (e.g., war, trade tariffs). Critics have noted its limitations, but proponents argue it provides a useful scarcity-based framework.
Rainbow Chart: From FOMO to Bubble Territory
The Rainbow Chart, based on logarithmic growth bands, suggests that over the next 18 months Bitcoin will move from the “FOMO” zone (just above $100,000) into the “Is this a Bubble?” zone, targeting a range of $290,000 to $365,000. The colored bands represent long-term sentiment thresholds. Earlier versions of the chart were criticized for being too optimistic, but subsequent adjustments have improved its accuracy by avoiding overfitting.
Despite its popularity, the Rainbow Chart has its own detractors who argue that it lacks empirical grounding. Nevertheless, it remains a widely referenced tool among retail and institutional investors.
Frameworks Illuminate, But Don't Determine
Together, the S2F model and Rainbow Chart suggest Bitcoin is approaching another inflection point. Yet math alone cannot capture all catalysts, such as liquidity shifts, regulatory developments, or investor psychology. Incorporating these factors can sharpen forecasts, allowing traders to treat colored bands and scarcity ratios as guideposts rather than ironclad predictions. Deviations from modeled paths may also spark debate and encourage refinements, blending traditional finance tools with on-chain metrics.