Bitcoin opened September under pressure, surrendering part of the rally it posted in late August. On Sept. 1, the cryptocurrency briefly rose to about $79,200 but failed to hold above $79,000. It then dropped quickly, touching roughly $76,370 before ending the UTC day near $77,399, a decline of 1.48%.
The weakness carried into Asian and early European trading on Sept. 2. Bitcoin opened around $77,399, rebounded only to about $77,750 in early trading, then slipped below $77,000 and fell to roughly $76,440. As of 6:30 p.m. Taipei time on Sept. 2, the latest reference price was about $76,489, down around 1.18% from that day’s UTC open. From the Sept. 1 open, Bitcoin had fallen about 2.64%, while the drop from the intraday high on Sept. 1 was about 3.4%.
Rising yields and oil prices add pressure
The pullback took place alongside a selloff in global bond markets. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly rose to 4.81% on Sept. 2, close to a three-year high. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also stayed above 3% for a second straight day, the highest level in about 30 years.
Higher yields lift returns on risk-free assets and usually reduce investor appetite for Bitcoin, technology shares, and other volatile assets.
Oil also moved higher, adding to inflation worries. Brent crude rose to about $95.61 a barrel on Sept. 2 after gaining nearly 6% in the previous trading session. The report said renewed tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about possible disruption to energy supply and increased the chances that major central banks would keep policy tight.
Hawkish rate expectations form the macro backdrop
According to CME FedWatch data, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September climbed to about 68%, up from just 37% a week earlier. That rapid repricing in rate expectations pushed up both the dollar and bond yields, forming one of the key macro factors behind Bitcoin’s failure to extend its August advance at the start of September.
Still, higher yields and oil prices explain only part of the move. The report noted that Bitcoin had surged about 23% within one week in late August. Short-term profit-taking, technical resistance in the $79,000 to $80,000 area, and a market reset in rate expectations may all have contributed to the retreat.
Leverage remains contained while ETP demand still supports the market
K33 Research said that after the earlier 23% advance, Bitcoin mostly consolidated in the $76,800 to $81,600 range, while derivatives activity stayed relatively moderate. Open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts stood at about $38.6 billion, down 1.8% from a week earlier. Funding rates in perpetual contracts remained neutral, a sign that the market had not built up extreme bullish leverage.
Institutional demand has not shown a clear reversal either. K33 said global Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded net inflows of 52,152 BTC in August, the strongest monthly figure since November 2024. In that reading, the current decline looks closer to profit-taking after a sharp run-up and a broader macro repricing, rather than enough on its own to call a full reversal of the August rebound after only two days of losses.
$76,400 to $76,800 becomes the first support zone to watch
From a short-term market structure perspective, the $76,400 to $76,800 area has become the first support zone to watch because the lows on both Sept. 1 and Sept. 2 clustered there. If Bitcoin keeps trading below that range, the correction may deepen. If it can reclaim $78,000 and then break above $80,000, that would give stronger confirmation that buyers have regained control.
The market’s next focus is U.S. employment data and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. With oil prices, bond yields, and rate-hike expectations all rising at the same time, whether Bitcoin can hold on to most of the gains from its sharp August rally will be central to judging if this is a normal consolidation or the start of a deeper pullback.