Odaily reported that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin has entered a new accumulation area, while the potential structural bottom for the current cycle remains around $48,000. His view is based on two on-chain references: the adjusted seller risk ratio and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed, or CVDD, valuation model. Together, these indicators describe changes in holder pressure and the lower valuation range of the current cycle.
The $60,000 Area and the Seller Risk Ratio
According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s adjusted seller risk ratio entered the red zone for the first time when the price fell below $60,000. In his interpretation, this means that loss-making supply has started to exceed profitable supply, while unrealized pressure among holders has risen significantly. The $60,000 area therefore becomes a key level for observing whether Bitcoin’s latest accumulation zone can remain intact.
Within this framework, the move below $60,000 was not treated simply as a price decline. It also coincided with a shift in the profit-and-loss structure of Bitcoin supply. When the seller risk ratio moved into the red zone, the share of supply under loss increased, adding pressure on holders who had not realized those losses. This is the basis for Adler’s description of the current market area as a new accumulation region.
CVDD Points to a Structural Bottom Near $48,000
On the other side of the analysis, the CVDD valuation model places Bitcoin’s structural bottom in the current cycle at roughly $48,000. Axel Adler Jr. said that historically, similar zones have often corresponded to market capitulation phases and the formation of cycle lows. He cited the cycle lows seen in 2019 and 2023 as examples of comparable historical regions.
Although Bitcoin has recovered to around $66,000, Adler noted that the market is still positioned in the lower part of its valuation range. The next points to monitor are whether the price can hold the $60,000 region and whether the smoothed seller risk ratio continues to rise. Until the final confirmation of the cycle bottom is complete, the $48,000 structural bottom and the $60,000 accumulation area remain the two main reference levels in his analysis.