Bitcoin started the week up nearly 1%, but traders are focused on Powell's speech, ISM manufacturing PMI, jobless claims, and U.S. labor data. The source says weaker jobs numbers could improve rate-cut and liquidity expectations, while some analysts still see downside toward the $46,000 area.
Analyst Darkfost says Bitcoin holders with coins older than six months are showing limited selling, with CVDD near bear-market levels. Robert Kiyosaki says he is tracking Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and silver and plans to add only after a reversal appears.
Jerome Powell is set to speak at Harvard at 10:30 a.m. ET, with markets watching for clues on rates, inflation, and growth. Traders currently see a 95.3% chance of no change at the April 29 meeting as Bitcoin faces macro and technical pressure.
Ali Charts outlined four Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging zones using URPD, CVDD, MVRV and a long-term trend line, with key areas near $63,111, $56,000-$60,000, $47,000-$49,000 and $36,000-$43,000.
Bitcoin has been in a downcycle since setting an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly fell to about $57,800, marking a maximum drawdown of roughly 54%, before recovering to around $62,000 by July 14. As the market searches for a bottom, a range of institutions including Standard Chartered, 10x Research, CryptoQuant, Citigroup, NYDIG, Galaxy Research, Bitfinex and 22V Research have published estimates, support levels, or downside scenarios. The views do not describe the same thing. Some are baseline bottom calls, some identify valuation floors or structural support, and others outline conditional targets under recession, ETF outflows, or technical breakdowns. Broadly, institutional views are clustered in two bands: $50,000-$60,000 and $40,000-$46,000. Calls below $40,000 are mostly tied to deep bear-market assumptions or stress cases rather than central forecasts. The article also reviews treasury activity at Strategy and Metaplanet, which has become an important variable in demand analysis, and surveys a wider range of market commentators from Willy Woo to Arthur Hayes. Taken together, the public record does not support the claim that institutions have reached a unified consensus around a $44,000-$46,000 cycle bottom.
Bitcoin has moved into a bottom-finding phase after falling from its roughly $126,000 all-time high in October 2025 to about $57,800 on July 1, 2026, a drawdown of around 54%, before rebounding to near $62,000 by July 14. A review by WuBlockchain shows that major institutions including Standard Chartered, 10x Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Galaxy Research, Bitfinex and Citi are not making the same type of call. Some are naming a cycle low, some are pointing to structural support, some are outlining bearish valuation cases, and others are giving conditional technical downside targets. That distinction matters. Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick said on June 12 that Bitcoin may already have formed a cycle bottom near $59,000, while 10x Research gradually lowered its downside view from $55,000 to a model range of $46,628 to $50,732. CryptoQuant highlighted realized price near $53,600 as an on-chain valuation floor, and NYDIG put 1x MVRV near $53,700 while also sketching a stress scenario at $37,900. Galaxy Research offered one of the clearest lower base-case ranges at $40,000 to $46,000. Across the market, current public views do not show a unified consensus around one exact bottom, and sub-$40,000 forecasts are mostly tied to deep bear-market or macro stress assumptions.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies critical Bitcoin support zones amid market volatility. UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows $63,111-$70,685 as major support. Below $63K risks liquidity vacuum. Long-term trendline at $56K-$60K, with CVDD bottom at $47,960 and severe distress at $43,647.
Analyst Willy Woo says Bitcoin’s Realized Price and CVDD models suggest a potential support zone between $45,500 and $54,200 in the current cycle, while warning that changing macro conditions could weaken the reliability of historical on-chain models.
