Bitcoin is still trading below a major cost basis level, and the market has not shown a convincing recovery. Analyst Darkfost said BTC has remained under the adjusted realized price of $72,500 for nearly two months. This metric excludes coins that have been inactive for more than seven years, making it a closer gauge of the cost basis for active market participants.
By removing dormant supply and long-term inactive holdings, the indicator aims to reflect the effective circulating portion of Bitcoin more accurately. For now, BTC has spent weeks failing to reclaim $72,500. That keeps the level in place as a firm ceiling rather than a launch point for a rebound.
Past bear cycles spent months below the same metric
Darkfost noted that earlier bear market phases showed a similar pattern. In those periods, Bitcoin stayed below this cost basis measure for six to ten months. The comparison does not confirm the same outcome this time, but it does show that pressure can persist for an extended stretch. Right now, $72,500 remains the main barrier to any durable recovery.
Repeated failure near $71K reinforced the downtrend
Recent price action matched that weak backdrop. Between March 21 and March 25, Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly $69,000 to $71,000. Each attempt near $71,000 ran into rejection, a sign that sellers were still defending the upside.
A brief breakout try on March 23 did not hold. Momentum faded quickly, and lower highs followed. From March 26, the structure shifted into a clearer decline, with both highs and lows moving lower. The sharpest move came on March 27, when Bitcoin fell from around $68,500 to near $66,000, confirming broad selling pressure.
$66K is immediate support, but signals remain mixed
After the drop, Bitcoin stabilized slightly above $66,000, which now serves as the nearest support area. On technical indicators, the RSI sits near 48.7, pointing to neutral momentum. The MACD is showing early signs of a bullish crossover, and the histogram has turned slightly positive.
Even so, the broader setup remains cautious. If BTC holds above $66,000, a move back toward $68,000 is possible. If that support breaks, the market could be exposed to another test of $65,000.