Bitcoin started the week on weaker footing as macro uncertainty and derivatives-market adjustment pushed volatility higher across crypto. The source points to rising tariff tensions between the EU and the US as a major driver of the negative tone. The US Supreme Court is expected to announce its tariff-related decision on Tuesday, while a sharp drop in PCE data before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is seen as unlikely. Strong employment data had already lowered the odds of rate cuts, leaving inflation data with less influence over current pricing.
$94,000 stands out as the near-term pivot
The market view in the source is straightforward: if Bitcoin regains $94,000, it may be able to retest $98,000. If the decline deepens, price could slide toward $88,000 or $85,000. The article notes that such a move would weigh more heavily on altcoins’ gains recorded in 2026. Crypto markets tend to reprice risk quickly, and the weak start to the week fits that pattern.
The source also says that during the midterm election period, markets had expected former US President Donald Trump to help create a more stable backdrop. That expectation has not been met, with disputes tied to Greenland still in focus. Crypto assets reacted by opening the week lower.
Binance holds 36% of open interest
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tracks Bitcoin open interest as a gauge of market risk appetite. According to the source, futures trading remains well ahead of spot and ETFs and accounts for most of Bitcoin’s trading volume, making open interest a key measure of investor positioning. Darkfost says Binance currently represents 36% of total open interest, keeping it at the center of market monitoring.
Since the last all-time high, Bitcoin has gone through a correction of about 36%, with part of that move linked to deleveraging in derivatives markets. Open interest fell from 381,000 BTC to 314,000 BTC, a decline of roughly 17.5%. That drop indicates a sizable reduction in leveraged exposure.
Open interest recovery points to improving risk appetite
Darkfost adds that after the correction in April 2025, open interest stabilized around 300,000 BTC, while Binance’s dominance eased to about 26%. From there, positions returned gradually to the futures market. Roughly 80,000 BTC flowed back into futures, supporting the next uptrend and eventually contributing to a new all-time high.
He argues that measuring open interest in BTC rather than US dollars helps filter out distortions caused by price swings. At the moment, that metric is showing a gradual recovery. Compared with the withdrawal phase seen in the previous year, momentum is building at a steadier pace, and the source says this supports the case for Bitcoin to challenge $94,000 again.