Author: Nancy, PANews
Bitcoin has remained stuck in correction mode since reaching an all-time high of about $126,000 in October last year, and it still has not regained an upward trend. In recent weeks, U.S. stocks and gold have moved into recovery first, and risk appetite across traditional assets has improved, but Bitcoin has continued to trade sideways instead of joining the rebound.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF money has started to return and some longer-term indicators have moved toward historical lows. The question raised in the report is why Bitcoin still has not entered a repair rally, and whether the current pullback is getting close to a cyclical bottom.
Stocks and gold have recovered, but Bitcoin is still lagging
After the sharp swings and quick pullback in the U.S. stock market at the end of July, capital rotated back into risk assets and equities rebounded quickly. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both recovered a large share of their earlier losses and reached record highs this week. Technology shares led the move, with semiconductor and AI-related segments rising across the board and lifting sentiment.
Precious metals also drew fresh inflows. Spot gold has risen for several sessions and at one point broke above $4,400 per ounce, the highest level in nearly two months. Spot silver moved higher as well and briefly traded above the $66 per ounce area, marking a roughly seven-week high.
Bitcoin has not shown the same recovery pattern. It weakened when risk assets came under pressure earlier, and it remained in an independent consolidation phase even after equities and gold turned higher again.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin has spent the past 30 days in a sideways range, fluctuating repeatedly between $62,000 and $66,000. Glassnode said that over the past 90 days, the S&P 500 gained about 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%, and the divergence has also remained visible over the last seven days. Until Bitcoin re-establishes relative strength against U.S. equities, the market is still being led by stock-market direction, the report said.
That has happened even though on-chain transaction volume has surged and spot ETF flows have improved. So far, the inflows have not become enough fuel to push price higher.
On-chain activity and ETF inflows improved, but price has not responded
On-chain activity has picked up sharply. Santiment Intelligence data showed that over the past week, the Bitcoin network added 2.27 million new BTC wallets, the highest level in nearly a year. Active wallets reached 751,000, the strongest reading in 10 months.
The report said a major catalyst behind that increase was a security scare linked to the Coldcard wallet incident. The event prompted some users to move funds, create new wallets, adjust custody arrangements, and reassess asset-security risks, which in turn lifted wallet creation and on-chain interactions.
ETF flow data has also improved. SoSoValue showed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows on five consecutive trading days last week, with total net inflows of $854 million. That was the best weekly performance since April 17. Since August, cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded four times the level seen during the entire month of July, reversing the pressure from the earlier run of outflows.
From May through July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of more than $6.59 billion, including an eight-week stretch of capital withdrawals. Even so, the rebound in ETF demand has not been large enough to trigger a clear move higher in Bitcoin. The report said market analysis attributes the recent inflows mainly to changes in custody demand and to softer labor data that improved rate-cut expectations, but current buying is still not enough to fully absorb ongoing selling pressure.
Miner selling, crypto DAT company sales, and weak U.S. spot demand are still weighing on Bitcoin
Bitcoin is still facing persistent selling from miners and crypto DAT companies. As profit margins narrow, operating costs rise, and demand grows for transitions tied to AI data centers, some miners have begun selling Bitcoin holdings to cover cash-flow needs, repay debt, or adjust business direction.
CryptoQuant data showed that since November 2021, BTC balances held at miner-linked over-the-counter addresses have fallen from about 500,000 BTC to 139,700 BTC, a drop of nearly 72%.
Crypto DAT companies have also started to change their Bitcoin treasury strategies. The report said some are selling part of their holdings to improve liquidity, repurchase shares, pay shareholder returns, or in some cases fully exit positions to survive. As one example, Strategy has sold 6,948 BTC since the end of June, cashing out about $432 million.
Demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak as well. Coinglass data showed that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed in negative territory for 80 consecutive days, from May 19 to the present, with the latest reading at -0.0868%. That is the longest negative-premium stretch on record and twice the previous 40-day record. Historically, a persistent negative Coinbase premium has often pointed to weak buying demand from U.S. investors or to stronger selling pressure in the market.
Only 4 of 12 bottom-fishing indicators have been triggered
Historically, after Bitcoin reaches a cycle top, the final bottom usually takes about 12 to 13 months to appear. If this cycle follows that historical rhythm, the report said the market low may not arrive until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Data tracked by PAData, the crypto market data and cycle indicator platform under PANews, suggests that Bitcoin is showing only partial bottoming signals so far. The framework covers data from CryptoQuant, CoinGlass, Alternative.me, DefiLlama, Dune, and growthepie. Within the dashboard, the metric called distance to trigger line measures how far the current reading is from the historical threshold associated with a bottom-fishing signal. The closer the value is to 0, the closer it is to a historical trigger.
Out of 12 core bottom-fishing indicators, only 4 have entered the trigger zone: Reserve Risk for long-term holders, BTC price divided by the 2-year moving average, AHR999 for long-term dollar-cost averaging, and EVM sample-chain active breadth.
Reserve Risk has fallen to 0.00108, the BTC price-to-2-year moving average reading has dropped to 0.73x, AHR999 stands at 0.345, and EVM sample-chain active breadth has declined to 0. These indicators mostly reflect long-term holder conviction, where price sits in the cycle, and how active the on-chain ecosystem is. According to the report, all of them have already moved into historically stressed areas, which means Bitcoin is trading at a visible discount relative to its long-term trend and its long-horizon allocation value is improving.
That does not mean the market has already bottomed. The report noted that in past cycles, Bitcoin bottoms were not typically marked by one single indicator. They appeared when several dimensions reached extreme levels at the same time.
Valuation, sentiment, liquidity, and profitability metrics are not yet at full-cycle extremes
Looking across valuation, sentiment, liquidity, and on-chain profitability, the market still appears some distance away from the deepest historical bottom conditions.
On valuation, the MVRV Ratio currently stands at 1.212 and has not fallen below 1, the line the report describes as a historical undervaluation threshold. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with realized value to gauge the market’s aggregate profit state. Historically, when it drops below 1, the market is usually in a deeper adjustment phase and often in a late-bear accumulation zone.
On unrealized profit and loss, NUPL is currently 0.175 and has not turned negative. The indicator measures net unrealized profits and losses across the market; when NUPL falls below 0, it implies holders as a whole have moved into net loss. At the same time, the miner-revenue metric Puell Multiple is 0.755, still above the historical stress area below 0.5. The report said major macro bottoms in the past have appeared when Puell Multiple moved under 0.5.
On market mood, the Fear and Greed Index is 29. That places the market in fear territory, but not yet in extreme fear. The reading suggests investors’ risk appetite is falling, though the broad panic selling often seen near cycle bottoms has not appeared.
On supply structure, the share of supply in profit is still 53.12%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin supply remains above cost basis. In historical bottom phases, that figure typically falls below 5%, implying that the market often needs a more complete loss realization process and more extensive coin redistribution before a final low forms.
Liquidity conditions also have not reached the most stressed zone. The stablecoin liquidity impulse now stands at -0.74%, signaling some contraction in the stablecoin funding backdrop. Historically, when the reading drops below -2%, it has often coincided with a significant 30-day decline in the supply of fiat-reserve-backed stablecoins and heavier market liquidity pressure. The current level is still some distance from that extreme contraction zone.
Parts of the broader on-chain ecosystem are also not showing a full washout. DeFi fundamental breadth is now 38.55%, still above the deep-contraction range of 0% to 25%. The metric is used to measure how widely DeFi operating activity is spreading across the market; lower levels tend to point to broad contraction in sector activity. The cross-chain MEME risk-appetite index is 32.66, above the cooling-zone trigger boundary of 0 to 20, which suggests market risk appetite has weakened markedly but capital has not yet moved into a fully frozen state.
Taking all of that together, the report concludes that Bitcoin is showing some bottom signals, but there is still not enough confirmation of a cycle reversal. Whether Bitcoin can start a genuine repair rally will depend on the persistence of inflows, the extent of selling-pressure release, and whether key on-chain indicators move closer to historical bottom ranges.
The article was republished by Blockcast with authorization from partner PANews. The original version was first published by Blockcast.