Bitcoin is trading in a market that looks less directionless than deserted, according to a note by SpecialistXBT published by ChainCatcher.
The author wrote that BTC weekly volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, while Deribit’s BTC volatility index, DVOL, bottomed last week. Liquidity is thin as well. At 20:30, when CPI data was released, BTC quickly dropped from $64,450 to $64,100, then bounced to around $64,300 before slipping again.
An hour later, when the U.S. stock market opened, participation in BTC remained limited. Aside from brief cross-market arbitrage flows, the market did not establish a fresh direction. The note says BTC is now easy to move, but there are not enough traders willing to carry the move forward. In that reading, the market is no longer missing just a bullish or bearish catalyst. It is missing participants.
Options data points to heavier demand for near-term downside protection
The report then turns to options. BTC 25 Delta Skew measures the implied volatility gap between put options and call options with similar delta. The one-month, three-month and six-month curves are all in positive territory, with the one-month tenor at about 12%, the three-month tenor at about 10.7%, and the six-month tenor at about 9.1%.
Shorter tenors show a higher skew. That suggests traders are paying more for short-dated downside protection than they are for risk further out on the curve.
An aggregate gamma heatmap into month-end gives a more concrete set of price boundaries. The market, according to the note, is still in a long-gamma zone where volatility tends to be suppressed. In that setup, dealers buy when price falls and sell when price rises, a hedging pattern that pulls BTC back toward the range.
The gamma flip area sits around $61,000 to $60,000. If BTC stays above that boundary, dealer hedging can absorb volatility. If price falls through it, positioning shifts into short gamma, forcing dealers to keep selling into declines. At that point, hedging stops acting like a brake and starts acting like an accelerator.
Why Saylor’s BTC sales and STRC’s rebound may not be simply bullish
The note says many traders have leaned on two changes to justify a constructive view. First, Saylor sold BTC in tranches over the past month worth several hundred million dollars, equal to about 0.13% of Strategy’s holdings, while BTC price stayed broadly flat. Second, STRC rebounded from a low near $73 to $95.45, leaving it within reach of $100. The market has tended to read both as evidence that bad news has already been absorbed.
SpecialistXBT offers another interpretation. In a low-liquidity, low-volatility market, large entities may still need to exit spot positions, but current turnover is not deep enough to absorb sizable sales. They may have paused not because they are done selling, but because the order book is too thin. If STRC returns to $100 and brings fresh BTC buying back into the market, that could become what the author calls a final exit window for those sellers.
Under that framework, bullish developments improve the conditions for selling. The note says this could explain why BTC moved sideways while Saylor was selling small amounts, and why pressure could remain even after Saylor resumes buying. The decisive variable is not Saylor’s buying or selling in isolation, but how large Strategy’s orders are relative to the market’s total potential spot supply.
The piece then raises a possible rebuttal: large entities have already gone through volatility events and Strategy buying before, so why did they not complete their exits then. The historical example cited in the note is not encouraging. After an earlier period when STRC regained fund flows and Strategy provided spot demand, BTC later fell quickly and closed near $59,000 before entering an extended stretch of consolidation.
That matters because options positioning has already marked $61,000 to $60,000 as the area where volatility could expand. If large spot sell orders push BTC into negative gamma, the note argues that only then might the market start forming its next bottom.
Strategy’s STRC buybacks lifted the price, but the $100 problem remains
The note says Strategy recently increased its dollar reserves by $650 million and repurchased $109 million of STRC. The company disclosed that those moves extended dollar reserve coverage by 143 days to 2.7 years and narrowed STRC’s bitcoin credit spread by 10 basis points. Including the previous week’s activity, the two-week repurchase total comes to about $190 million.
That money helped pull STRC back to around $95, but in the author’s view it did not solve the central problem. STRC has to get back to $100.
The reason is the ATM issuance framework. Strategy issues STRC near $100 through at-the-market sales. In the note’s framing, that tells the market the company will add new supply whenever the stock approaches that level. As a result, holders who bought below $100 have an incentive to sell around $99.9. Even if STRC reaches $100, those sales can quickly push it back below the line.
Short sellers can use the same setup. They can borrow shares and sell around $99.9, then buy them back if the price drops to $95 again, capturing a spread of about $5 per share.
The biggest risk in that trade is a breakout above $100 that keeps running, forcing shorts to cover at higher prices. But the note argues that Strategy’s own supply near $100 caps much of that upside. The more the market believes the company will issue stock at $100, the more willing traders will be to sell early at $99.9, and the harder it becomes for STRC to establish itself above $100.
That leaves the market with a simple question. If roughly $190 million in buybacks still cannot reclaim $100, where does the next round of money to support STRC come from. In the author’s view, concern about BTC monetization rises with that question. Strategy’s recent combination of rebuilding dollar reserves and buying back STRC suggests that repairing the funding side comes first, while restoring net BTC buying comes later.
Shorting STRC is not costless, however. Traders have to borrow the stock before selling it, and while the position is open they must pay a securities lending rate above 50% annualized and compensate for a dividend of about 12%. Combined, the annualized carrying cost is above 60%. If the stock lingers around $100 for an extended period, time itself eats into the trade.
Even so, the note says the dilution effect from issuance means shorts rarely need to face a prolonged upside move. If Strategy stopped issuing STRC at $100 and the stock rose from $99.9 to $102 to $105, shorts would immediately face mark-to-market losses of roughly $2.1 to $5.1 per share. Some would have to buy back shares to cut losses, and that buying could push the stock up even more, creating a short squeeze.
In the author’s telling, the borrow fee determines how long shorts can stay in the trade, while Strategy’s issuance rule determines whether they need to stop out early. As long as issuance begins at $100, that level is likely to keep attracting shorts.
The note also points to a tension in capital allocation. If MSTR continues to sell common stock when its mNAV is below 1, that dilutes value per share for common equity holders. By contrast, buying back STRC without raising its dividend and without repurchasing MSTR gives preferred holders more direct protection. Strategy may see longer dollar reserve coverage and a narrower bitcoin credit spread, while common shareholders may see a different question: who is paying for the repair.
Bitfinex Long has stopped offering direction
The final section looks at Bitfinex Long. According to the note, the metric usually moves inversely to BTC price. When BTC falls, large long positions on Bitfinex often increase. When BTC rises, those positions tend to fade. Traders often treat that inverse relationship as a positioning gauge to see whether large players are absorbing BTC during weak price action.
Recently, though, the indicator has stopped working in the way the market expects. The rate-of-change reversal signal in Bitfinex Long has dropped to its lowest level since the end of the 2022 bear market. With BTC still moving sideways above $60,000, Bitfinex long positions have neither increased clearly nor exited clearly, leaving the market without much guidance for the next move.
The note closes with a blunt line: BTC’s 「救世主」 has turned into 「撒旦」.