Bitcoin's supply in loss surged past 10 million BTC on Thursday, representing over half of the total circulating supply of roughly 20 million coins, according to Glassnode data. The metric peaked at about 10.5 million BTC as the price dipped to $61,300.
Supply in Loss Overtakes Profit for First Time
During the same period, supply in profit fell to around 9.8 million BTC. This marks the first time in the current cycle that the amount of bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded that held in profit. Historically, this condition has only occurred during deep bear markets and has often coincided with major market bottoms.
Looking at previous cycles: the 2015 bear market saw near-equilibrium between supply in loss and profit for almost a year before recovery; in 2019, it lasted roughly six months; the March 2020 COVID-driven capitulation lasted about one month; and the 2022 bear market persisted for approximately six months. The implication is that while the signal has tracked bear-market lows, the duration of these episodes varies significantly, making it difficult to estimate how long depressed prices may last.
200-Week Moving Average Under Threat
Bitcoin also touched its 200-week moving average, currently around $61,300 — a long-term trend indicator that has historically acted as major support during every bear cycle. If BTC breaks below the psychologically important $60,000 level, the next major support zone is near $54,000, corresponding to the realized price. The realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all coins based on their last on-chain move, and bitcoin has traded below this level during every prior major bear market.