Bitcoin is back near the $63,000 mark, with pressure coming from both a broader retreat in risk assets and steady loss-taking by long-term holders.
CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin changing hands at about $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% below the all-time high of $126,080 set in October. Decrypt reported that the market remains weighed down by selling from long-term holders who are still exiting at a loss.
Bitcoin failed to hold $65,000 on Wednesday and slid to an intraday low of $62,640. Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey, told Decrypt that the move broke below a "$64,500 Put Wall" linked to this week’s options expiry. He said the area had been a short-term support zone because of the heavy concentration of put open interest there.
Macro pressure is shaping the move
Sun said risk appetite across broader markets has cooled significantly. Global equities are correcting, and deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets has accelerated. In his view, that pressure is not only hurting crypto sentiment, it is also reducing institutional exposure to Bitcoin.
At the same time, he said the derivatives market is not showing leverage-related crowding. Selling pressure, for now, is centered in spot trading.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, described the decline in similar terms. She told Decrypt that the move looks like a broader wave of risk aversion rather than a deterioration in crypto-specific fundamentals. Bitcoin, she said, has become increasingly sensitive to the macro backdrop, with rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in sentiment driving short-term price action.
Hathorn added that price action and the underlying flow picture are sending slightly conflicting signals. The overnight move looks negative, but the broader setup is less bearish than the headline move might imply.
Older coins are still moving to exchanges
Glassnode said the most persistent selling pressure is coming from longer-term holders. More than 65% of coins flowing into exchanges are from long-term holders realizing losses, according to the firm. It said that pattern matches earlier bear-market periods, when that group dominated the sell side until the pressure eventually ran out.
Glassnode said that until this share falls, structural selling from buyers who entered near the cycle top remains the dominant force in exchange flows.
Sun said on-chain data points the same way. Investors who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are gradually accepting losses and exiting, he said, and that wave has capped recovery attempts. He pointed to the weak rebound even after what he described as an encouraging U.S. inflation report.
Glassnode also highlighted direct exchange-flow analysis to measure how strongly long-term holders are anchoring the sell side. Its Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges indicator breaks down how much of the coins sent to exchanges are being moved at a profit or a loss, and which holder cohort is driving the flow.
In a July 16 post on X, Glassnode wrote: "To size how intensely long-term holders are anchoring the sell side, we can zoom into exchange flows directly. The Relative LTH/STH Realized P&L to Exchanges breaks down what share of coins flowing into exchanges carry a profit or loss, and which cohort is driving it."
ETF inflows have returned, but not enough yet
A modest return in ETF demand has not put a floor under Bitcoin. According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $425 million in outflows on Monday, followed by $181 million in inflows on Tuesday and $108 million in inflows on Wednesday.
Sun called that a marginal recovery, but said it was not enough to lift the market. The report noted that the funds have attracted about $51 billion since launching in 2024.
Hathorn took a somewhat more constructive view. She said the shift back to inflows after a period of outflows suggests that longer-term investors are gradually returning to the market, which she sees as an early sign that institutional demand is recovering.
Signs of exhaustion are emerging
Both Sun and Glassnode pointed to early signs that the heaviest selling may be nearing an end. Sun said the liquidation intensity of long-term holders may have started to peak, while on-chain realized losses are beginning to decline.
Glassnode cited analyst CryptoVizart’s view that bear markets rarely find durable footing until the one-to-two-year holder cohort has fully exhausted its selling.
Sun said that without a larger external shock, the downside may remain limited. With selling pressure weakening and leverage positioning still not crowded, Bitcoin could be setting up for what he described as a choppy bottom.
For now, though, the coins reaching exchanges still mostly come from investors who bought near the top. Glassnode argued that until that flow fades, they remain the dominant force in the market.