Crypto markets roared back to start the week, with bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 level and briefly touching $71,000. The rally was triggered by a temporary halt in U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, which cooled oil prices and eased inflation fears.
Truce Lifts Bitcoin Above $70K as Geopolitical Risk Premium Drops
Wintermute’s latest market outlook noted that bitcoin climbed from the low $68,000 range to trade above $70,000, approaching $71,000. The rebound came after a volatile week in which the asset had fallen roughly 3.4%, pressured by rising oil prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% and signaled little to no cuts through 2026, keeping pressure on risk assets.
Geopolitics remained the dominant driver. Last week, disruptions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $112/barrel, its highest in years, fueling inflation concerns. The five-day pause in hostilities lowered the risk premium in oil markets, resetting positioning ahead of the March 27 options expiry, according to Wintermute: “The macro ceiling has shifted. Trump’s five-day pause temporarily lowers the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.”
Ethereum Draws Institutional Inflows; Gold Posts Historic Weekly Decline
Ethereum outperformed during the turbulence, with investors attracted to its staking yield amid a high-rate environment. Ethereum ETFs saw consistent institutional inflows, while bitcoin ETFs experienced short-term outflows during last week’s selloff. Overall flows for BTC ETFs remained stable.
Gold, the traditional safe-haven, moved in the opposite direction. The metal dropped more than 10%, logging its worst weekly performance since the early 1980s. A stronger U.S. dollar and forced liquidations drove the decline. Some analysts suggest capital shifted from gold to crypto assets seeking higher beta.
Wintermute: $74k–$76k Possible if Strait of Hormuz Shipping Normalizes
Looking ahead, the Strait of Hormuz shipping route becomes the pivotal factor. Wintermute said that if oil prices stabilize and shipping routes normalize, bitcoin could retest the $74,000 to $76,000 range. However, renewed disruptions may push prices back toward the mid-$60,000 levels.
For now, crypto markets are reacting swiftly to macro and geopolitical shifts, highlighting their growing sensitivity. Market participants are watching the March 27 options expiry and any diplomatic signals between the U.S. and Iran. Whether this window of calm holds will determine if bitcoin can break the $76,000 resistance.