UTXO P&L Ratio at New Bear Market Low Triggers First Capitulation Signal
According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that Bitcoin's unspent transaction output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to the lowest level of the current bear market, marking the onset of a broader capitulation phase. This is the first time the metric has sent this signal during the current correction. Historically, when the number of UTXOs sold at a loss reaches a significant level, it often corresponds to the bottom area of a bear market, offering attractive entry points for long-term investors. The last time the indicator reached a similar level was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin price dipped to around $26,000.
Long-Term Holder SOPR Turns Negative, Short-Term Sellers Dominate
Darkfost further noted that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders is gradually moving into negative territory, signaling that HODLers are beginning to capitulate. However, the selling pressure for this correction has been predominantly driven by short-term holders, who have been transferring large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain data suggests that market sentiment is extremely bearish, but historically such phases often precede bottoming formation.
Swissblock Confirms Bottom Building, Geopolitical Risk Adds Volatility
On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes that Bitcoin has largely completed the first phase of decline and is now in the process of bottom-building. Price action is stabilizing, but market momentum remains weak with limited upside recovery. Adding to the mix, renewed US airstrikes on Iranian targets over the weekend fueled risk-off sentiment, briefly pushing Bitcoin to $59,800 before it rebounded to around $60,100. In the near term, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate near the $60,000 level, waiting for the next catalyst to break the range.