Bitcoin has fallen from a record high of roughly $126,080 in October to the low-$60,000s in recent trading, a drop of nearly 50% that has shaken sentiment. Even so, two fresh research notes suggest the move may still be following a familiar script rather than breaking from Bitcoin’s usual market pattern.
VanEck ties the decline to Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle
According to a Thursday report from asset manager VanEck, Bitcoin’s current slump tracks the asset’s historical four-year halving cycle. In that cycle, mining rewards are periodically cut in half, reducing the flow of new supply. VanEck said bear phases have often followed as part of that recurring structure.
The firm described the latest downturn as a repeated feature of Bitcoin’s market design, not a sign that the structure itself has changed.
GEO framework shows mixed but not broken conditions
VanEck’s GEO framework monitors three areas: Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity. Right now, the firm said two of the three signals are neutral, while ecosystem leverage sits in constructive territory.
VanEck said that combination points to early signs that a bottom may be forming. On that basis, the firm said it may be time to start scaling into positions.
CryptoQuant sees a pattern that has appeared at prior major bottoms
Separate research from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant pointed in a similar direction. Its analysts highlighted on-chain data showing that long-term Bitcoin holders are now sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the market as a whole, based on adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL.
Those long-term holders are typically viewed as one of the market’s steadiest groups and among the most tolerant of losses. Analyst MorenoDV said this week that the same setup, where long-term holders are hurting more than average, has appeared at every prior major cycle bottom.
CryptoQuant still warns against calling the bottom too early
CryptoQuant did not say the market has definitely bottomed. The firm cautioned that in past cycles, the same long-term-holder metric fell to much deeper negative extremes before Bitcoin reached a true low. Current readings have not reached that zone.
That leaves open the possibility of one more sharp capitulation move. At the same time, CryptoQuant said the outcome could differ if institutional demand is stronger and the holder base proves more resilient than in earlier cycles, allowing this drawdown to end with less damage than previous ones.
What both reports are saying
Taken together, the two reports describe a Bitcoin market that looks stressed by historical standards, but not yet pushed to the extremes that marked prior cycle floors. The common message is that current weakness resembles earlier bear-cycle behavior, and that some early bottoming signals are visible, but neither report says the final low has been confirmed.