Bitcoin has entered a compressed low-volatility phase, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, who said the 30-day average of the asset’s one-week realized volatility has fallen to 28.3. That marks a roughly 31% decline from the June 25 peak of 41.6 and places current readings around the 8th percentile of the historical distribution since 2016, meaning volatility was higher on about 92% of trading days.
Adler also said the 30-day momentum of Bitcoin open interest relative to market capitalization has stayed negative for 21 straight days. In his view, that shows leverage is continuing to leave the market instead of building up under low-volatility conditions. Bitcoin has rebounded about 11.4% from its June low, but the move has not come with an expansion in derivatives positioning, which lowers the risk of a large liquidation cascade.
He added that Bitcoin still remains below its 200-day moving average of $72,666. If volatility rises back above 35 while price still fails to reclaim that long-term average, downside risk could increase.
Bitcoin has moved into a compressed low-volatility phase, according to a July 22 post cited by BlockBeats from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
Adler said the 30-day average of Bitcoin’s one-week realized volatility has fallen to 28.3, down about 31% from the June 25 peak of 41.6. He said that level has dropped back to roughly the 8th percentile of the historical distribution since 2016, which means volatility was higher than it is now on 92% of past trading days.
At the same time, the 30-day momentum of Bitcoin open interest, or OI, relative to market capitalization has remained negative for 21 consecutive days. Adler said that points to continued deleveraging rather than fresh leverage building during a low-volatility stretch.
Bitcoin’s price has rebounded about 11.4% from its June low, but the move has not been accompanied by an expansion in derivatives positions. On that basis, he said the risk of a large liquidation cascade has been reduced.
Still, Bitcoin remains below its 200-day moving average of $72,666. Adler added that if volatility climbs back above 35 while the price still fails to move above the long-term average, downside risk could rise.
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