Spot bitcoin ETFs have not recorded an outflow so far this month, bringing in $754 million in the first week of August. Even so, bitcoin was steady at $64,700, while options flow pointed to downside protection around $62,000 and $63,000.
The split in positioning leaves the market looking supported in spot but far from fully convinced. CoinDesk said ETF demand appears to have returned, yet derivatives traders were still preparing for a possible pullback ahead of the U.S. jobs report due later on Aug. 7.
Put activity clusters around lower strike protection
CoinGlass data showed put options made up 53.8% of bitcoin options volume over the past 24 hours. Three of the four most-traded contracts were puts at $62,000 or $63,000, with expiries on Aug. 10, Aug. 14 and Aug. 28.
Puts give holders the right, but not the obligation, to sell. Recent flow suggests traders have been leaning toward downside hedges rather than chasing upside exposure in the near term.
That does not mean the whole options market has turned bearish. Calls still account for 60.7% of total open interest, which shows the broader positioning remains tilted toward calls even as fresh trading has concentrated on protective puts.
Volatility pricing has fallen sharply
Hedging is also relatively cheap. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks expected 30-day bitcoin volatility, is near 35. Earlier this year, it was as high as 90.
Implied volatility reflects how the market prices future moves. At current levels, traders are not assigning a large premium to major short-term swings, and the prevailing expectation is that not much will happen in the immediate future.
Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that the compression extends across 30-, 60- and 90-day trading ranges and across options from one week to three months.
“The market is effectively becoming crowded around the expectation that very little will happen,” he said.
U.S. labor data is the next test
That assumption faces a macro test from the United States. According to FactSet, economists expect payrolls to have increased by roughly 97,500 in July after a 57,000 gain in June, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.
A stronger reading could push bond yields higher and reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase. A weaker result could drag yields lower, though it would also revive concern about softer growth.
Deans added that thin participation and weak liquidity can leave the market fragile. In those conditions, even modest shifts in supply or demand can produce much larger price moves.
“The key conclusion is that Bitcoin’s lack of movement should not be mistaken for an absence of risk,” he said.
Other items highlighted in CoinDesk’s Daybook
The newsletter’s trending section also pointed readers to several market and policy developments:
- CoinDesk reported that the U.S. Senate will not vote on the crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act before its summer break, though industry leaders still hope lawmakers will make a decision in September.
- Another CoinDesk report, citing blockchain data tracked by Santiment, said whales and sharks holding 10 BTC to 10,000 BTC accumulated more than 20,000 BTC since July 29, worth $1.2 billion at the current market price, while ETFs attracted $750 million.
- Reuters said global stocks were heading for their strongest weekly gain since May ahead of major U.S. jobs data, as optimism over earnings growth and enthusiasm around AI offset concern about a renewed flare-up in Middle East tensions that lifted oil.
- CNBC reported that Iran’s chief negotiator accused President Donald Trump of staging “theater diplomacy,” while Washington and Tehran offered conflicting accounts of talks to end the war. The report said the conflict was widening across the region, with Gulf energy infrastructure and key shipping chokepoints under renewed threat and traffic near the Strait of Hormuz close to a standstill.
- Daybook also said a weekly bullish RSI divergence in BTC/USD was playing out, with bearish momentum fading but no reversal confirmed. It described the structure as still being in a downtrend, with price below a downward-sloping EMA50 at about $78,000 to $79,000 and RSI still under 50, leaving expectations for sideways trading or bottoming until resistance is tested and broken.
Additional headlines listed in the newsletter
- The U.S. unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, putting Federal Reserve rate hikes in question.
- After a Clarity Act funeral, the crypto world would keep turning.
- Why Bitcoin’s BIP-110 refuses to die despite near-zero miner support.
- Bitcoin hovered below $65,000 as Middle East tensions escalated further.
- Coldcard fallout appeared on-chain as 210,000 bitcoin left old wallets.
- Crypto market maker Wintermute won U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval to trade equities and ETF blocks.
- Ethereum staking token weETH split from restaking as debate over rewards intensified.
- Live updates tracked bitcoin near $65,000 as the U.S. lost jobs last month.
- Bitcoin whales loaded up on $1.2 billion in BTC while ETFs drew $750 million.
- A bitcoin wallet dormant since 2011 moved $3.2 million toward an address linked to FalconX.
Zcash piece also flagged
The Daybook excerpt also referenced a separate feature on Zcash. It said the network’s Tachyon upgrade is aimed at scaling shielded payments, improving quantum readiness, and testing whether its funding, security and governance can hold up.