This week's core observation: Bitcoin's daily chart structure has weakened, and the short-term rebound is being tested at the upper rail of the descending channel; meanwhile, HYPE on the 4-hour chart has completed a seven-wave advance that now shows momentum divergence and model-driven top signals, warranting caution against a pullback. The following analysis examines multi-timeframe structures and outlines both medium-term and short-term trading strategies.
1. Bitcoin Daily and Multi-Timeframe Channel Structure
Since the low on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin has been oscillating upward within a rising channel (yellow). The lower boundary connects the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper boundary is drawn parallel through the March 17 high. However, after reaching $82,850 on May 6, price entered a short-term descending channel (blue), with the upper boundary formed by the rebound highs of May 14 and May 26, and the lower boundary by the corrective lows of May 7 and May 23.
Currently, the price has lost the midline of the rising channel and is seeking stronger support near its lower rail. Within the descending channel, after finding brief support at around $72,500 near the channel's lower border, price is now mounting a weak rebound toward the upper boundary. Overall, this appears to be an oversold bounce aimed at the descending channel's ceiling, but with the rising channel midline breached, the technical structure has turned bearish. Once the rebound exhausts, price is very likely to resume its downward trajectory and test the rising channel's lower support.
2. BTC 4-Hour Structure and Short/Medium-Term Strategies
On the 4-hour timeframe, the correction from the $82,850 peak on May 6 can be decomposed into a ten-segment structure (segments 27-28 through 36-37), which contains two consolidation zones. Zone D is formed by the overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31; Zone E by segments 32-33, 33-34, and 34-35. At present, the 36-37 rebound is in progress. If this bounce faces rejection in the $75,000–$76,000 area (near the lower edge of Zone E) and fails to achieve a clean breakout, the market will likely extend the sideways-to-down pattern and probe support around $69,500–$70,500.
Key resistance levels: first zone $75,000–$76,000, second zone $78,500–$79,500. Key support levels: first at $69,500–$70,500, second near $65,000.
For short-term tactics, we employ 30% of total capital and trade swings between these levels. Two specific plans are prepared: Plan A – if price rallies into the $75,000–$76,000 resistance and the quantitative model generates a top signal, open a short position of no more than 30% exposure with a stop above $77,000, and gradually take profits near key support zones. Plan B – if price effectively breaks below the $69,500–$70,500 support with confirmation from the top model, likewise initiate a short with a stop above $72,000 and close in steps at support.
3. HYPE 4-Hour Structure and Top Risk
On the 4-hour chart, HYPE has constructed a clear seven-wave advance (40-41 to 46-47) from the May 14 low of $38.14, complete with a bullish consolidation zone (segments 43-44, 44-45, 45-46 overlapping). Our previous weekly note highlighted that point 45 already exhibited momentum divergence and a concurrent top warning from the spread trading model; subsequently, price corrected from $64.75 to $56.30, a maximum drop of 13.05%.
Now, as the breakout segment 46-47 exits the consolidation, its upward momentum appears exhausted compared with the entry segment 42-43, suggesting a high probability of momentum divergence. Additionally, the proprietary “spread trading model” has triggered a strong top alert (red dot + white dot) at point 47.
4. HYPE Short-Term Strategy and Last Week’s Short Trade Review
The main focus for HYPE this week is to confirm whether point 47 marks the ultimate top: if the momentum divergence materializes and price subsequently breaks below the $62.5–$64.57 support zone with conviction, then point 47 will likely be the terminus of the rally that started from May 14. The short-term approach should be “buy dips, avoid chasing rallies.” Closely watch the reaction around the $62.5–$64.75 zone: if price stabilizes and both models flash a bottom signal, a light long position (under 30% of capital) can be considered with strict stop-loss. Should that support give way, the correction will expand to a higher degree (e.g., daily), with the next downside targets at $54–$56.3.
Looking back at last week’s execution, we followed the plan. When Bitcoin bounced to around $78,000, a top fractal appeared alongside our model’s warning, so we opened a 30% short at $77,449. As price dropped to near $73,000 and bottom signals emerged, we closed the entire position around $73,519, locking in a profit of approximately 5.07%.
5. Trading Discipline and Risk Disclaimer
Immediately after opening a trade, set an initial stop loss. Once the position is 1% in profit, move the stop to the entry price (breakeven). At 2% profit, shift the stop to the 1% profit level. Thereafter, for every additional 1% in profit, ratchet the stop up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in gains.
Financial markets are inherently volatile; all analyses and strategies must be adjusted dynamically. The views, models, and trading plans expressed here are derived from personal technical analysis and are intended solely as a personal trading journal; they do not constitute any investment advice or trading recommendation. The market carries risk, and investment decisions should be made with caution.