Bitcoin briefly dropped below $81,000 on Thursday, its lowest level since Sept. 20, and then rebounded to around $82,000 after Donald Trump said he would not move against Iran before the midterm election. The slide had been linked to renewed concern over a possible U.S.-Iran military confrontation, which pushed oil prices and long-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher. OpenAI’s release of hundreds of AI math results also stirred what traders described as fresh anxiety around cryptography.
$82,500 becomes the key weekly level for Bitcoin
Several traders are treating $82,500 as the line that could shape the next market structure. Rekt Capital has repeatedly said a weekly close above or below that level will help determine whether Bitcoin can return to the broader $60,000 to $80,000 macro accumulation range or remain in an early re-accumulation phase. If the weekly candle closes below it and the area flips into resistance, the chart could form a right-shoulder setup.
Daan Crypto Trades pointed to an even more immediate threshold. In that view, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $83,000 before the range midpoint and prior highs can come back into play. Without that recovery, bears would still have the upper hand.
Other market participants are watching whether price can hold acceptance in the $80,000 to $80,400 area, with another reference support level near $75,000. Timothy Peterson, working from historical drawdown data, said the odds of a fresh all-time high rise sharply if Bitcoin gets back above roughly $88,000, a level that marks a 30% pullback from the previous peak. He said the historical hit rate is close to 100%.
Quantum and cryptography debate returns
Another discussion gathering pace centers on quantum risk. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake called for attention to what he described as a "bunker mode," arguing that users should move funds to fresh addresses where the public key has not been exposed. The concern is that faster mathematical progress driven by AI could one day weaken elliptic curve cryptography.
That view is not universal. Coinbase Head of Cryptography Yehuda Lindell and some other industry participants said the market does not need to panic at this stage, arguing that the assumptions behind the threat have not been materially validated. Doctor Profit said a real quantum threat would likely hit banks and core infrastructure before it singled out Bitcoin.
For now, spot flows still appear to be the dominant driver. Options skew and open interest relative to market cap have not yet shown clear bubble signals. Will Clemente said a divergence has appeared on the local daily chart and warned traders to stay cautious in the short term, while adding that after key weekly moving averages are reclaimed, past cycles have rarely gone back to retest the cycle low.
On-chain monitoring also drew attention. Over the past three days, the U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC worth about $1.48 billion and 750 WBTC worth about $62 million into Coinbase Prime. During the same period, Bitcoin fell about 6.9%. The transfers fueled debate over possible sell pressure or a custody-related adjustment, though there has been no clear sign so far of large-scale distribution.
U.S. equity futures steady, semiconductors draw flows
U.S. stock index futures stabilized after overnight haven demand eased. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.83%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.39%, and Dow futures were up 0.16%.
BIT after-hours data showed money rotating back into technology and semiconductor names. Micron Technology rose 1.92%, AMD gained 1.89%, Intel added 1.86%, and Nvidia climbed 1.44%.
Lumentum advanced nearly 4% after its CEO said optical component capacity could remain sold out through 2029. That comment reinforced expectations for long-duration demand in optical communications infrastructure. In related moves, AAOI jumped 5.32% and Coherent gained more than 3%.
SpaceX rose about 3.7% after announcing the acquisition of a portfolio of low-band spectrum assets in the United States. The move prompted investors to reassess the potential for Starlink Mobile to expand into conventional wireless communications, while AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile were seen facing new competitive pressure from direct-to-cell satellite services.
Apple fell 2.2% after a report said demand was weaker than expected following price increases, leading the company to cut iPhone 18 Pro orders.
Rising memory and chip costs squeeze smartphone makers
Higher memory and chip costs are putting fresh pressure on the smartphone industry. After the National Day holiday, Huawei and Xiaomi raised prices again on several models. Xiaomi’s imaging flagship, the Xiaomi 17 Ultra, saw all versions increased by 1,000 yuan, lifting the price range to 7,999 yuan to 9,999 yuan. Some Huawei nova 16 models were raised by 200 yuan to 400 yuan. Earlier, the Huawei Mate 80 series and other mainstream brands had already moved prices higher because of surging memory costs.
Samsung Electronics is facing a similar squeeze. With memory prices jumping, the company is sharply cutting fourth-quarter smartphone supply by 20% to 30%. Some products are now in what the report described as a "sell one, lose one" situation. Brokerages expect Samsung’s mobile division may post an operating loss of 19 trillion won in the third quarter.
The report said Huawei executive Richard Yu estimated that the cost of each handset has risen by about 1,343 yuan. A number of manufacturers and institutions expect the current price cycle could run through 2028. Even so, attempts to spur demand with a "buy later, pay more" message have met a weak response. China’s smartphone shipments have now fallen year over year for five straight quarters, and the replacement cycle has stretched to 42 months.
OpenAI revenue gap rattles the AI trade
U.S. technology stocks came under heavy pressure in the previous session. The Nasdaq fell 1.25%, its largest one-day drop in about seven weeks. The S&P 500 lost 0.47%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 3.39%.
One trigger was a new OpenAI investor document showing annualized revenue of nearly $50 billion as of the end of September, well below the $70 billion figure that had been circulating in the market. The roughly $20 billion gap called into question one of the market’s core assumptions: that AI demand would keep expanding without clear limits.
Goldman Sachs’ trading desk said results from Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. failed to meet elevated expectations, while market talk about additional bond financing by Oracle and Broadcom added to concern over the durability of capital spending. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak said investors are starting to ask how long AI spending on that scale can continue as borrowing costs rise sharply.
China’s National Climate Center confirmed that a super El Nino event had formed in September 2026 and is expected to peak in December. The World Meteorological Organization warned it could become the strongest such event since 1950. Over the coming months, higher global temperatures and greater risk of extreme weather could indirectly affect energy and agricultural commodity prices, adding another variable to inflation expectations. Jefferies had previously warned that if a super El Nino becomes reality, a group of U.S. consumer stocks could be among the first to feel the impact.
Crypto-linked equities and miners fall sharply
Crypto-related stocks also came under pressure. According to BIT U.S. equities data, Strategy fell 1.24%, Coinbase dropped 3.61%, Robinhood lost 2.28%, and Circle was unchanged.
The pullback was steeper in mining names. Hut 8 fell 10.87%, Riot dropped 9.17%, CleanSpark lost 7.73%, IREN fell 7.70%, Cipher Digital slid 7.28%, Bitdeer dropped 6.54%, Terawulf lost 5.21%, Marathon fell 4.34%, American Bitcoin dropped 5.72%, and Canaan declined 4.90%.
Asia markets split as Japan weakens and Hong Kong rebounds
South Korean markets were closed on Oct. 9 for Hangeul Day, so there were no local trading data for the session.
In Japan, equities opened lower under pressure from technology names and were down more than 1% intraday before recovering most of the loss. The Nikkei 225 eventually slipped 0.02%. Concern over OpenAI’s revenue picture weighed on Japanese chip-related names, with SoftBank Group down more than 6% and both Kioxia and Renesas Electronics down more than 4%. LGT Private Banking Asia said the U.S. dollar could trade in a 155 to 160 range against the yen in the near term, while repatriation of European fixed-income assets by Japanese investors could lend support to the yen.
Hong Kong stocks moved the other way. The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.79% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.06%. Internet and technology names recovered broadly. Xiaomi gained nearly 10% after orders for Xiaomi Pengcheng reportedly exceeded 70,000 units in its first month after listing. Kuaishou rose 5.47% as Kling AI was said to be targeting a Hong Kong listing as early as next year and preparing to launch Kling 4.0. Tencent climbed 3.26%, with NetEase, Meituan, Alibaba, and MiniMax also higher.
Gold miners were the strongest defensive trade in Hong Kong. Zhaojin Mining rose 6.54% and Zijin Mining gained 5.31%. By contrast, AI hardware and PCB-related names were under obvious pressure. Dingtai Gaoke plunged nearly 21%, Guanghe Technology fell 10.09%, Nvidia supplier Victory Giant Technology dropped 6.71%, and both Kingboard Holdings and Kingboard Laminates fell more than 5%. The market circulated talk that the U.S. Printed Circuit Board Association had pressed the U.S. government to remove Chinese PCB products from military supply chains. Together with the OpenAI revenue miss versus expectations, that fed concern over a slowdown in computing infrastructure spending. China Everbright Securities International said in a research note that the Hang Seng Index may continue to search for a short-term bottom and that caution is warranted.
Mainland Chinese equities also recovered after an early decline. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index added 0.22%, with turnover at 1.92 trillion yuan. Film and television stocks surged in the afternoon with multiple limit-up moves, precious metals also strengthened, and computing hardware shares continued to adjust lower.
Key market items of the day
- The claim window for the LAPTOP airdrop has ended, and all unclaimed tokens will be burned.
- Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume ranking: KAIA, XRP, BTC, ETH, ONDO.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flow: -$244 million.
- Spot Ether ETF flow: -$72.544 million, marking an eighth straight day of net outflows.
- Top gainers among the 100 largest tokens by market cap: PYTH up 14.8%, ATOM up 8.9%, DOT up 6.9%, BTW up 5.5%, and AERO up 5.3%.
The piece was jointly produced by PANews and BIT U.S. equities and credited to "BIT Trading Time." The original article also stated that it represented the views of a PANews column contributor, not PANews itself, and did not constitute investment advice.