Bitfinex said on X that the share of Bitcoin supply held at a loss rose above 50% on June 30 before falling back below that level. The exchange said the signal has been associated with Bitcoin cycle bottoms since 2011. Based on historical data cited in the post, the median 12-month forward return for Bitcoin after the signal appeared was 74%. The update points to a metric that Bitfinex views as a recurring marker in past market cycles, while noting that the ratio has already moved back under the 50% threshold after the June 30 reading. No additional price targets or timing forecasts were provided in the post.
Bitfinex said in a post on X that the share of Bitcoin supply sitting at a loss rose above 50% on June 30, then later moved back below the 50% mark.
According to Bitfinex, that signal has been associated with Bitcoin cycle bottoms since 2011. Historical data cited by the exchange shows that after the signal appeared, Bitcoin's median 1-year forward return was 74%.
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