Top market themes
Fed outlook shifts after weak July payrolls
Bitget UEX’s daily report said U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below market expectations for an increase of about 90,000. Even after revisions, the prior reading remained weak. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
Private-sector employment rose by 30,000, but a sharp decline in government jobs dragged down the headline figure. The report said markets quickly marked down the probability of a September rate hike, while Treasury yields moved lower. In its reading, the weaker labor data reinforced the soft-landing narrative and offered short-term support to risk assets and precious metals by reducing near-term tightening bets.
Gold clears $4,400 while oil stays elevated
Spot gold strengthened after the payrolls release and moved through the $4,400 mark, according to the report. Oil remained range-bound at high levels, with West Texas Intermediate trading in the $78-$79 band and Brent in the $83-$84 range.
The note said uncertainty over talks related to Hormuz remained in place, but short-term sentiment was driven mainly by the labor report. It described weak employment data as supportive for haven demand and rate-cut expectations, which benefited gold, while oil continued to draw support from geopolitical and supply-demand factors.
Berkshire ends its net-selling streak
Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter operating profit of $12.98 billion, up 16% year over year, while net profit doubled. The company ended a 14-quarter streak of being a net seller of stocks and bought nearly $20 billion of equities in the second quarter.
The report said Berkshire also made a large addition to Alphabet, moving Google’s parent into its top five holdings. At the same time, Berkshire accelerated buybacks, repurchasing about $4.5 billion in the quarter. Cash reserves fell to about $365.5 billion. The note said the market broadly viewed Berkshire’s return to net buying as a long-term bullish signal and as evidence that new CEO Greg Abel has started putting Buffett’s large cash pile to work.
Market review
Commodities and FX
- Spot gold: about $4,325 per ounce, -0.38%
- Spot silver: about $63.8-$63.9 per ounce, -0.23%
- WTI crude: about $78.88 per barrel, +0.9%
- Brent crude: about $80.6 per barrel, +0.78%
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): about 99.64, +0.04%
The report linked the move in precious metals to the much weaker-than-expected July payrolls number, which sharply cooled near-term rate-hike expectations and helped gold break above $4,400 to a fresh local high. Silver moved in the same direction but with less upside sensitivity. Oil, by contrast, remained elevated as traders weighed uncertainty around Hormuz against the macro read-through from the labor market.
Its framework was straightforward: weak jobs data lifts rate-cut expectations, lower real rates support gold, and improving risk appetite helps equities. The note said commodity volatility in the short term is still likely to hinge on follow-up employment data and geopolitical developments.
Crypto market performance
- BTC: about $64,900, +0.06%
- ETH: about $1,914.5, -0.13%
- Total crypto market capitalization: about $2.28 trillion, +0.2%
Liquidations across the crypto market totaled about $170 million over 24 hours, including roughly $115 million in short liquidations.
Bitget’s BTC/USDT liquidation map showed BTC trading around $64,956. The report flagged a large cluster of short liquidations between $65,800 and $66,000. A break above that zone could trigger a stronger short squeeze. On the downside, it identified notable long liquidation pressure around $64,500. If BTC slips below the $64,500-$64,000 area, the note said a chain of long stop-outs could follow. The main short-term liquidity battlegrounds were listed at $64,500 and $65,800.
As of last Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded five consecutive days of net inflows, with one-day inflows exceeding $100 million. The report said weaker-than-expected payrolls helped steady the broader crypto market. BTC stayed above $64,500, ETH was relatively stable, and ETF inflows continued to offer support.
U.S. equities
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 54,036.93, +0.28%
- S&P 500: 7,757.64, +0.62%, a new record close
- Nasdaq: 26,690.62, +1.30%
Among major technology names, NVDA closed at $223.96, up 2.27%; AAPL at $313.33, up 0.29%; MSFT at $499.99, up 0.03%; GOOGL at $354.30, down 0.96%; AMZN at $274.48, up 0.82%; META at $592.10, up 0.37%; and TSLA at $328.58, up 2.83%.
The note said U.S. stocks finished broadly higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 setting another record and the Nasdaq leading. The weak payrolls report cooled rate concerns and lifted risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla both rose more than 2%, Amazon, Apple and Meta edged higher, and Google slipped modestly. According to the report, market focus shifted from earlier concerns about AI capital spending toward expectations tied to a soft landing and better liquidity conditions.
Sector moves
Semiconductors were stronger, led by Nvidia’s 2.27% gain, as the labor data cooled rate expectations and improved sentiment around AI hardware. Growth technology shares also outperformed, with Tesla up 2.83% and the Nasdaq posting the strongest index gain of the day.
In defensive and value-oriented names, Berkshire-related sentiment improved after the company’s use of cash was read as a constructive long-term signal.
Single-stock focus
1. Berkshire Hathaway: nearly $20 billion in net equity purchases
Berkshire’s second-quarter operating profit rose 16% year over year to $12.98 billion, and net profit doubled. The company swung from being a net seller of equities to a net buyer, purchasing nearly $20 billion in stock during the quarter. It also made a sizable addition to Alphabet, moving the company into Berkshire’s top five holdings, bought back about $4.5 billion of its own shares, and ended the quarter with around $365.5 billion in cash and equivalents.
The report said the shift was broadly interpreted as a clear long-term bullish signal. After years of net selling, Berkshire’s first large-scale return to net buying suggested management saw valuations as attractive. The report also said Alphabet’s inclusion among Berkshire’s top five positions reflected recognition of the long-term value of AI infrastructure. It added that investors should watch future position disclosures, the pace of buybacks, and Greg Abel’s ongoing approach to capital allocation.
2. Nvidia: sentiment recovery lifts the stock
Nvidia gained 2.27% to $223.96 and stood out as one of the key drivers inside the semiconductor group. The report tied the move to a rebound in risk appetite after the payrolls miss, which sent money back into leading AI hardware names.
It said earlier concerns over the payoff period for AI capital spending and bottlenecks in advanced HBM supply had weighed on the stock. With weaker employment data boosting expectations for easier policy and better liquidity, capital rotated back toward companies seen as more certain beneficiaries of AI compute demand. The note said Nvidia’s near-term performance will still depend on macro liquidity, customer capex guidance, and supply-chain improvement.
3. Tesla: high-beta rebound
Tesla rose 2.83% to $328.58, ranking among the better performers in large-cap technology. The report said high-beta growth names drew clear inflows once the jobs data pushed investors back toward risk.
It described Tesla as a stock supported by several narratives at once, including electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and the humanoid robot Optimus. In a market rotating from defense to offense, that volatility profile made it a favored target for short-term positioning. The report said investors should keep watching delivery numbers, autonomous-driving progress, and the commercialization path for Optimus.
4. Alphabet: Berkshire support, but a softer session
Alphabet fell 0.96% to $354.30, trailing most of the megacap group. That came even as Berkshire increased its stake materially in the second quarter and elevated the stock into its top five holdings.
The report said Berkshire’s purchase strengthened the long-term case for Alphabet, but shorter-term flows were more interested in higher-beta hardware and growth names. It added that the market is still balancing Alphabet’s AI commercialization progress against the resilience of its advertising business. The note highlighted Gemini monetization, cloud growth, and ad revenue recovery as the next major points to track.
5. Amazon: steady gains
Amazon climbed 0.82% to $274.48, moving higher with the broader technology sector. The report said that in a market leaning toward a soft-landing view, Amazon continued to attract support through AWS growth and its longer-term AI infrastructure spending case.
Compared with more volatile hardware names and high-beta trades, Amazon was framed as a cleaner mix of earnings delivery and growth visibility. The note said future focus should remain on whether AWS growth can keep absorbing capital spending, along with the resilience of retail and advertising operations.
Market and project updates
- Xinhua, citing Iran’s Mehr News Agency, reported that the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee approved an outline for a strategic action plan aimed at ensuring the security and development of the Strait of Hormuz.
- ARK Invest said Cathie Wood argued in a new macro analysis that Bitcoin is stabilizing again relative to gold, and that Bitcoin and stablecoins could be two of the main beneficiaries of a shift toward agentic commerce. She also said the bigger future risk is deflation rather than inflation, especially for companies that have not adopted AI and productivity tools; oil prices could fall sharply; and current AI capital spending is not a bubble but an early-stage technology revolution.
- More than 100 crypto projects have shut down, filed for bankruptcy, or permanently ceased operations since the start of 2026, according to the report. It said the pace of exits is accelerating across exchanges, wallets, DeFi lending protocols, NFT marketplaces, and Layer1 blockchains. The report compared the shakeout to post-dotcom consolidation, noting that many altcoins have fallen 70% to 90%, shrinking token-denominated treasuries, while tighter funding conditions and higher security-attack costs are pushing out projects without real revenue or users.
- Michael Saylor posted “Doing ₿usiness” on X yesterday and attached a chart of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. The chart showed Strategy’s Bitcoin reserve value at about $54.66 billion. The report noted that, based on prior patterns, Strategy often discloses changes in its Bitcoin holdings on the day after such a message appears.
- Data in the report showed that tokens including YZY and AVAX are due for large unlocks this week, with YZY alone accounting for about $35.8 million in unlocked value.
- After the first batch of restricted shares became eligible for sale, the large-scale selling that some in the market had feared did not materialize. SpaceX (SPCX.US) rose sharply for a second straight trading day and approached its $135 IPO price, nearly reclaiming that level for the first time since it fell below it last month.
Today’s calendar
What the market is watching
The report placed the highest weight on follow-through from the payrolls data, along with U.S. economic releases and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
- Payroll aftermath: whether markets continue pricing in weaker employment and how Fed officials respond
- Berkshire holdings: more detailed equity-position changes are due to be disclosed this month
- Geopolitics: developments around Hormuz negotiations remain a variable
Institutional view in the report
The note said analysts broadly viewed Berkshire’s end to its net-selling streak and its large stock purchases, especially the increase in Alphabet, as a clear long-term bullish signal and evidence that the new management team has begun deploying cash more actively. It also said the weak July payrolls figure sharply cooled near-term rate-hike expectations and helped drive simultaneous gains in U.S. equities and gold.
Within equities, the report described a split inside technology, with hardware and high-beta names showing greater upside elasticity as risk appetite improved. Its broad conclusion was that labor-market data and institutional capital flows are the market’s main focus right now, though it also warned that revisions to the data and renewed geopolitical volatility still need to be watched.
The original report ended with a disclaimer that the material was compiled using AI search and manually checked for publication, did not constitute investment advice, and could contain discrepancies versus real-time market data.