Top developments
Fed focus shifts to Jackson Hole and core PCE
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Aug. 28, with markets watching for comments on inflation and fiscal issues. CME data cited in the report showed a 60.4% probability that rates will remain unchanged in September and a 39.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and other officials are also due to speak this week.
The report said Warsh’s remarks, together with core PCE data, form the key near-term inputs for policy pricing and could affect term premium and risk assets.
Crude retreats as markets price in a lower geopolitical premium
According to the report, Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz as well as mine-clearing plans, with work on a permanent route expected to advance within 30 to 60 days. Pakistani and Iranian sources said the U.S. and Iran had reached a consensus on ceasefire terms, including freedom of navigation in the strait, and that the details could be announced in the coming days alongside the start of talks.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is not currently planning a new round of military strikes on Iran and will instead apply pressure through a naval blockade and Treasury sanctions. Trump said mines in international waters had all been cleared.
That combination of developments drove a sharp decline in the geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude fell nearly 2%, with Brent moving lower in tandem. The report said the move eased concerns about sticky inflation in the short run and helped support risk assets.
Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods
Canada said it will impose tariffs of 15% to 50% on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Sept. 8, with metal products facing rates as high as 50%. Ottawa will also provide C$7.5 billion in support funding. The U.S. government is discussing additional punitive measures against Canada, according to the report.
Bitget UEX said the escalation could weigh on North American supply chains and sentiment, though some of that pressure was offset in the near term by easing tensions tied to the Iran news.
Market review
Commodities and FX
- Spot gold: about $4,650 per ounce, down 0.25%
- Spot silver: about $68.6 per ounce, up 0.05%
- WTI crude: about $80.47 per barrel, down 2.12%
- Brent crude: about $83.4 per barrel, down 2.12%
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): about 98.93, up 0.02%
The report identified lower Hormuz risk pricing as the main driver in commodities. Gold traded between weaker oil and residual safe-haven demand, while silver held up better on its industrial profile.
Its framework for cross-asset moves was straightforward: easing geopolitical tension pushed oil lower, lower oil softened inflation fears, and that shift gave risk assets room to stabilize.
Crypto market performance
- BTC: about $78,770, down 1.17%
- ETH: about 2,4754, down 1.37%
- Total crypto market cap: $2.73 trillion, down 1.9%
- 24-hour liquidations: $624 million, including $322 million in long liquidations
Bitget’s BTC/USDT liquidation map put spot BTC around $78,800. The report said short liquidation pressure is concentrated in the $80,000 to $81,500 range, meaning a break above $80,000 could trigger a more visible short squeeze. On the downside, it identified dense long liquidation clusters between $77,000 and $79,000. If support near $78,000 gives way, leveraged long positioning could unwind further.
Spot ETF flows remained positive. The report listed net inflows of $338 million for the previous day and a current 24-hour net inflow of $29.9 million. Bitget UEX said crypto stayed range-bound near the highs as easing Iran-related tensions and falling oil improved risk appetite. BTC briefly tested the $80,000 level, while ETH moved broadly in step. The next macro transmission points, it said, are U.S. core PCE and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
U.S. equities and megacaps
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 53,577.40, up 0.30%
- S&P 500: 7,677.28, up 0.32%
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,151.30, up 0.66%
The major indexes all closed higher, with technology and semiconductors leading the rebound.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): $213.05, up 2.19%, ending a seven-session losing streak
- Apple (AAPL): $309.90, down 0.14%
- Microsoft (MSFT): $491.71, up 0.90%
- Alphabet (GOOGL): about $347, slightly lower
- Amazon (AMZN): $261.06, down 0.39%
- Meta (META): $570.05, up 1.97%
- Tesla (TSLA): $350.25, up 0.37%
The report said money rotated back into growth shares as oil prices fell and yields eased. Storage and optical networking names advanced broadly, and AMD gained nearly 5%. Even so, single-stock divergence remained visible, with consumer tech relatively steady rather than broadly strong.
Sector moves
Semiconductors and storage: AMD rose nearly 5%, Micron Technology and SK Hynix gained more than 2%, while Seagate Technology and Western Digital climbed more than 3%. The report tied the move to South Korea’s 401% year-over-year rise in DRAM export prices and Nvidia’s rebound.
Optical communications: Lumentum rose nearly 7%, Applied Optoelectronics added more than 5%, and Coherent and Ciena gained more than 4%. Bitget UEX described the move as a technical rebound after an earlier pullback, helped by expectations around AI infrastructure demand.
Crypto-linked equities: Robinhood rose more than 8%, Circle and Coinbase gained more than 4%, and Strategy added more than 3%, supported by firm BTC levels and stronger risk appetite.
Single-stock breakdown
Nvidia ends seven-day slide before earnings
Nvidia rose more than 2% and snapped a seven-session losing streak. The company also introduced the Jetson Orin Nano 2 robot computer, which the report said offers 78 TOPS of compute, 8GB of memory, and an eight-core Arm CPU. Inference performance is listed at 2x the previous generation, while power consumption in 15-watt mode is down 40%. The product targets robotics, drones, and edge AI applications, with mass production expected in the first half of 2027.
Nvidia is due to release second-quarter earnings after the close. The report said investors are focused on data center revenue, gross margin, and forward guidance. It described the stock rebound as a mix of sentiment repair and positioning ahead of results, while also noting that the Jetson launch adds to Nvidia’s edge AI and physical AI push. Analysts are watching for any signs of slower customer capex or stronger competition affecting share.
AMD jumps on product progress and rating upgrade
AMD gained nearly 5%, making it one of the strongest names in semiconductors. The company said it is bringing UCIe interconnect technology to its Versal adaptive SoC to support low-power, high-bandwidth chiplet communication. Raymond James upgraded the stock to “Strong Buy” and lifted its price target to $641. The Helios rack-scale AI platform is expected to begin shipping in September.
The report said institutions are constructive on AMD’s progress in AI server CPUs and full-rack systems. It cited analyst views pointing to data center revenue doubling year over year and design wins involving customers including OpenAI and Meta, with a multi-vendor setup seen as supportive for AMD’s market share.
Micron and the tighter memory supply narrative
Micron rose more than 2% as storage names advanced. South Korea’s August DRAM export unit price reached $92,183 per kilogram, up 401% from a year earlier and roughly 12.5 times the 2023 low, according to the report. Goldman Sachs expects the global DRAM supply-demand gap to widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year and says the imbalance could last through 2028. TrendForce said wafer allocation to HBM at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will rise to 30%.
Bitget UEX said market participants have become more constructive on a storage supercycle as HBM and high-capacity server DRAM continue to absorb production capacity, tightening standard DRAM supply. It also noted the risk of a later cycle turn once new capacity comes online after 2027.
Optical networking names rebound
Lumentum rose nearly 7% and Applied Optoelectronics gained more than 5%, while Coherent and Ciena climbed more than 4%. The report said the move reflects a technical recovery after a deep correction, with demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules and high-speed interconnects in AI data centers still serving as the main industry thesis. Analysts are tracking backlog and capacity ramp progress, and the note stressed that the group carries both high upside sensitivity and high volatility.
Robinhood leads crypto-related stocks
Robinhood rose more than 8%, with Circle and Coinbase up more than 4% and Strategy ahead more than 3%. The report said elevated BTC prices and firmer risk appetite directly supported trading platforms and bitcoin-linked holdings. It identified expectations for clearer regulation under the Clarity Act and trading-volume leverage as the main drivers, while noting that the group remains closely tied to BTC price action in the short term.
Market and project updates
- Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the GLD gold ETF and the IBIT bitcoin ETF had returned to the top-10 trading-volume list, displacing semiconductor ETFs that had dominated through the summer. He called it another sign that the “debasement trade” is starting to replace AI mania, with investors rotating from AI growth chasing into hard-asset protection.
- South Korea’s August DRAM export price jumped 401% year over year, reinforcing expectations of tight supply through and after 2027.
- According to Sputnik, sources in Pakistan’s military and Iran’s security apparatus said the U.S. and Iran had reached a consensus on ceasefire terms, including freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. One source said: 「就停火协议达成共识，其中包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行条款。」
- Morgan Stanley said off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments by the five major cloud companies plus Nvidia and Broadcom have exceeded $3.1 trillion.
- Anthropic estimates its potential market at more than $30 trillion, with a possible IPO valuation of $2 trillion.
- Apple released the M6 and M5 Ultra chips alongside new Mac mini and Mac Studio models. The report said the M6 is Apple’s first 2-nanometer chip, with a 12-core CPU, a 12-core GPU, and dual 16-core neural engines. The M5 Ultra uses a four-die architecture and can be configured with up to a 36-core CPU, an 80-core GPU, 512GB of unified memory, and 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth.
Today’s calendar
Economic data
U.S. July core PCE inflation data is due later in the day.
Event schedule
Aug. 26 (Wednesday)
- U.S. July core PCE, personal income and spending, second-quarter GDP revision, and durable goods orders
- Nvidia to report after the close, with data center revenue, gross margin, and guidance in focus
- CrowdStrike and Salesforce also scheduled to report after the close
Aug. 27 (Thursday)
- U.S. initial jobless claims, trade balance, and wholesale inventories
- Jackson Hole symposium opens
- Marvell, Ulta, and Gap among companies due to report after the close
Aug. 28 (Friday)
- Fed Chair Warsh to deliver a keynote at Jackson Hole at 22:00 Beijing time, with inflation and policy path comments in focus
- U.S. Chicago PMI, benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment
The report said sell-side analysts see lower oil and reduced geopolitical risk as near-term support for risk appetite. It also pointed to the DRAM price spike as a major driver for the semiconductor and optical networking rebound, while Nvidia’s earnings remain the immediate focal point. In crypto, prices are still holding near elevated levels. The stated strategy focus was on core PCE, Nvidia guidance, and Jackson Hole, while watching how lower energy prices feed into rotation across assets.
