Top market themes
Oil rebounds and higher Treasury yields keep pressure on risk assets
Bitget UEX said oil prices strengthened again as the market reassessed supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz after U.S.-Iran talks failed to reach a breakthrough. Brent crude recovered to around $106 a barrel, while WTI moved back above $94.
The report said the rebound in energy prices, combined with rising U.S. Treasury yields, continued to weigh on risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 5.2%. According to the note, elevated oil prices may support earnings for energy companies, but they also raise cost pressure for transportation, manufacturing and consumer sectors. If energy prices stay high, inflation expectations and long-term rates may remain firm, limiting room for valuation recovery in technology shares and crypto assets.
Nvidia expands buyback and launches an AI agent safety platform
In technology and AI, Nvidia’s board approved an additional $150 billion in share repurchases, bringing the company’s remaining buyback authorization to about $235 billion. Nvidia also introduced the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, using components such as OpenShell and Sentry to strengthen permission management, security monitoring and anomaly isolation for AI agents.
Nvidia rose 1.66% on Sept. 28, making it the only stock in the Magnificent Seven to finish higher. Bitget UEX said the enlarged buyback signals management confidence in cash flow and AI demand, but whether repurchases can support valuation over a longer period will still depend on continued growth in data center revenue, AI inference demand and free cash flow. The note added that divergence inside the AI hardware segment is continuing, with capital concentrating in market leaders that offer greater fundamental certainty.
Consumer confidence and housing data are next tests for high-rate pressure
The report highlighted several U.S. macro releases. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for July is due at 21:00 Beijing time on Sept. 29, followed by the Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index at 22:00 Beijing time. Markets will then turn to Aug. PCE inflation, personal income and personal spending data scheduled for Sept. 30.
Bitget UEX said a clear cooling in consumer confidence or housing could reinforce expectations of slower growth. If inflation remains sticky, though, the Federal Reserve’s policy room would still be limited. The push and pull between rates and growth expectations remains the main pricing force for both equities and crypto in the near term, the report said.
Market review
Commodities and foreign exchange
Spot gold was around $4,122.42 an ounce, down about 3.79% on the day. Spot silver traded near $61.00 an ounce, with losses of more than 4%. WTI crude futures for the November 2026 contract were around $94.50 a barrel, while Brent crude was about $106.10 a barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index stood near 101.21.
The report said oil rebounded as supply risks were repriced, while a firm dollar and elevated Treasury yields put pressure on gold and silver. The pullback in precious metals reflected concentrated profit-taking and showed that haven trades remain volatile in a high-rate environment.
Crypto market performance
BTC traded around 83,548 USDT, down about 1.19% over 24 hours. ETH was around 2,681.87 USDT, down about 0.17%. Total crypto market capitalization was about $2.85 trillion.
On flows and positioning, weekly data disclosed on Sept. 28 showed that Strategy added 1,665 BTC over one week, spending about $143 million at an average purchase price of roughly $85,681. Its total holdings rose to 847,666 BTC. With BTC trading below that average entry price for now, the report said the institutional accumulation has not yet translated into immediate price support.
Over the same period, BitMine added 17,362 ETH, taking its total holdings to more than 6 million ETH, equal to about 4.9% of ETH’s circulating supply. As BTC and ETH prices fell, 24-hour trading volume expanded noticeably, pointing to heavier short-term selling and turnover. Overall, the note said listed-company treasuries are still buying on weakness, but macro pressure is outweighing the support that institutional spot buying might otherwise provide.
U.S. equity indexes and the Magnificent Seven
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,481.51, down 0.67%. The S&P 500 ended at 7,683.69, down 0.77%. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,820.38, down 0.92%.
Among the Magnificent Seven, NVDA traded around $228.86, up 1.66%; AAPL was around $338.40, down 0.76%; MSFT was around $509.22, down 1.33%; GOOGL was around $342.75, down 0.33%; AMZN was around $246.15, down 1.35%; META was around $715.62, down 4.81%; and TSLA was around $357.45, down 3.97%.
Bitget UEX said the group finished with one gain and six declines. Nvidia outperformed on the back of its buyback plan, while Meta and Tesla posted the largest losses. Rising oil prices and higher long-term yields pushed investors to cut exposure to richly valued assets, and technology names that had rallied strongly recently faced more visible profit-taking pressure.
Sector moves
In energy, renewed concern over crude supply offered relative support to oil producers and oilfield services companies. The report said the next focus will be the pace of supply recovery and whether high oil prices begin to curb end demand.
In AI and semiconductors, Nvidia advanced on the buyback announcement and the launch of its AI safety platform. AMD, Micron and other chip names were under pressure, with some stocks falling about 3% or more. The market, the note said, is shifting away from broad AI expansion trades and toward scrutiny of orders, margins, free cash flow and capital return.
Key U.S. stock analysis
Nvidia: buyback signals confidence, but AI cash flow remains central
Nvidia rose 1.66% on Sept. 28 to about $228.86. The company added $150 billion in buyback authorization, lifting the remaining total to about $235 billion, and rolled out a safety and governance platform for AI agents.
The report said the repurchase plan suggests management believes future cash flow can support research and development, ecosystem investment and shareholder returns at the same time. It also said the AI safety platform broadens Nvidia’s reach beyond chips into software and enterprise infrastructure. Investors are watching data center revenue, demand for follow-on Blackwell products, free cash flow and the pace of actual buybacks. Repurchases may cushion short-term volatility, but longer-term valuation still depends on earnings growth.
Meta: sharp pullback points to profit-taking at elevated levels
Meta fell 4.81% to about $715.62, making it one of the weakest performers in the Magnificent Seven. Bitget UEX said the stock had previously been lifted by expectations around AI agents and application monetization, and that the latest decline more likely reflected weaker risk appetite and profit-taking rather than a single fundamental event.
The report said the market is still waiting for data on user retention, paid conversion and AI operating costs. In the short term, traders are watching whether the stock can find support near its earlier breakout area. Over the medium term, the focus is on whether AI products can generate measurable new revenue while keeping inference and infrastructure costs under control.
Micron: caution builds ahead of earnings
Micron shares fell about 3% on Sept. 28. The company is scheduled to report earnings after the U.S. market closes on Sept. 30. The note said memory pricing and HBM demand remain the core drivers, but investors are reassessing whether high expectations can convert into actual revenue, gross margin and capacity delivery.
Key items to watch include HBM orders, DRAM pricing, capital expenditure and next-quarter guidance. If results merely meet expectations without another upward revision, the stock may continue to face valuation digestion pressure, according to the report.
Market and project developments
Strategy continued to add BTC. The company disclosed that it bought 1,665 BTC over one week at an average price of about $85,681, bringing total holdings to 847,666 BTC. Bitget UEX said the continued buying shows its corporate treasury strategy has not changed, though short-term unrealized losses may sharpen market attention on financing and leverage costs.
BitMine also expanded its ETH reserve. The company added 17,362 ETH in one week, taking total holdings to more than 6 million ETH, of which about 5.067 million ETH has been staked. The report said the purchase size was lower than the previous week, but the long-term accumulation direction remains unchanged.
In Europe, the European Central Bank and some national central banks in the European Union have proposed adjustments to bank deposit ratio requirements for stablecoin issuers under the MiCA framework, while allowing more short-duration, highly liquid assets into reserve portfolios. The proposal still needs to go through policy consultations.
Stablecoin payment use cases are also expanding. SoFi recently said it is using SoFiUSD to process Mastercard payment settlement, a sign that bank-issued stablecoins are gradually entering traditional card-clearing scenarios.
Market calendar
Scheduled data releases
- Sept. 29, 21:00 Beijing time: U.S. July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index
- Sept. 29, 22:00 Beijing time: U.S. September Conference Board consumer confidence index
- Sept. 30, 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. August PCE inflation, personal income and personal spending
Events to watch
Micron is expected to release earnings after the U.S. market closes on Sept. 30, corresponding to early Oct. 1 in Beijing. The market is focused on HBM revenue, memory pricing and margin guidance.
U.S. PCE inflation data for August will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Sept. 30. Core PCE will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next rate path.
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is expected at 20:30 Beijing time on Oct. 2. Wage growth and the unemployment rate will be key gauges of labor-market resilience.
Institutional views
According to media reports, eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne said Nvidia’s larger buyback reflects management confidence in the durability of AI demand, though spending on AI infrastructure is unlikely to maintain its current pace forever. Charles Schwab strategist Nathan Peterson said equities could find some room to recover if Treasury yields retreat and stabilize. The report said the market’s central tension remains whether corporate earnings growth can offset pressure from higher energy prices and rising long-term financing costs.