Top developments
Kevin Warsh set for first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair
Bitget’s UEX daily report said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 28, marking his first appearance there since taking office. His agenda is expected to cover the inflation target, productivity, demographics and global economic shocks.
With inflation having stayed above the 2% target for five straight years, markets are watching for language that goes beyond a broad claim that the Fed is still dealing with price pressure. The federal funds target range now stands at 3.5%-3.75%. The report described the speech as an important read on the new chair’s communication style and policy priorities, with possible implications for how markets price the path of rates.
Trump’s Iran remarks keep oil supported
On commodities, the report said Trump has continued to signal economic pressure on Iran, helping support crude prices. Brent was described as rising to around $93. In the report’s framing, geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns remain the main short-term drivers for oil.
That matters for broader markets. Elevated oil prices, the report said, reinforce worries about sticky inflation and weigh on assets that are sensitive to interest rates.
Bessent says long-dated Treasury buybacks will at least double
On U.S. macro policy, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks would be expanded by at least twofold. A single operation next month could exceed $4 billion, according to the report, and new fiscal consolidation measures could be announced as soon as this weekend or early next week.
The report added that Trump has assigned Bessent and the budget director to push the effort forward. Measures under consideration include anti-fraud actions, cuts to some state-level spending and tariff revenue. Bitget’s report said the buyback move briefly pushed yields lower, but skepticism about its durability quickly returned. Long-end yields rose again on Thursday, and U.S. equities surrendered earlier gains.
Market review
Commodities and FX
- Spot gold: around $4,511 per ounce, down 0.19%
- Spot silver: around $68 per ounce, down 0.11%
- WTI crude: around $86 per barrel, down 0.59%
- Brent crude: around $88.8 per barrel, down 0.52%
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): around 98.8, down 0.05%
The report said the Treasury’s expanded buyback plan initially pushed long-dated yields lower, but the effect faded quickly. At the same time, oil rose on geopolitical tension, reviving inflation worries. Gold traded between the pull of rising yields and safe-haven demand, while silver held up somewhat better. In the report’s summary, short-term commodity pricing has been dominated by the combination of fading buyback effects and higher oil, with the chain running from oil gains to firmer inflation expectations, then higher yields and pressure on risk assets.
Crypto market
- BTC: around $73,600, up 5.88%
- ETH: around $2,338, up 3.04%
- Total crypto market cap: $2.55 trillion, up 3.8%
- Total liquidations: $957 million, including $785 million in short liquidations
Bitget’s BTC/USDT liquidation map put Bitcoin at about $73,659. It said the $70,000-$73,000 area still holds a sizable amount of long liquidation leverage, meaning a break below that zone could trigger a chain of forced selling. On the upside, short liquidation pressure is building in the $74,000-$76,000 range. If Bitcoin keeps climbing, short covering could amplify the move. The report said the short-term leverage center has shifted upward, with the main battleground around $73,000-$74,000.
Spot ETF flows were also positive. The report listed yesterday’s net inflow at $517 million, with a rolling 24-hour net inflow of $103 million. Bitget tied the strength in BTC and ETH to Trump’s push on crypto legislation, residual momentum from White House meetings and an earlier short squeeze. It also noted that while higher yields have created some pressure on risk assets, crypto has traded with relative independence from the pullback in U.S. stocks. The report said institutional consensus still points to policy narrative and liquidity as the main short-term drivers, with capital flows and leverage worth close tracking.
U.S. equity indexes
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,759.21, down 1.32%
- S&P 500: 7,641.16, down 0.87%
- Nasdaq: 26,067.17, down 1.00%
Technology and consumer shares were under pressure. The report said the fade in the Treasury buyback effect, a renewed rise in long-end yields and higher oil prices all hurt risk appetite. AI hardware names and consumer technology stocks moved lower together, while defensive positioning picked up.
Big Tech performance
- NVDA: $216.62, down 0.43%
- AAPL: $311.15, down 1.79%
- MSFT: $481.01, down 0.68%
- GOOGL: $340.48, down 1.23%
- AMZN: $260.14, down 2.14%
- META: $545.68, down 0.06%
- TSLA: $345.35, down 1.64%
Most of the Magnificent Seven finished lower. Apple and Amazon led the declines, while Nvidia was described as relatively resilient.
Sector moves
Biotech and pharma stocks saw a sharp pullback. Moderna fell about 23.55%, and the biotech index dropped about 2.92%. The report said the move reflected profit-taking and volatility unwinding after the prior session’s surge.
Crypto-related stocks extended gains. Strategy rose about 7.81% and Coinbase added about 7.58%, supported by Bitcoin’s strength and policy expectations.
Consumer and retail names remained weak. The report pointed to concern triggered by consumer data and earnings guidance, adding that retailers including Walmart traded lower.
Single-stock focus
Moderna: sharp reversal after a one-day surge
Bitget said Moderna had soared about 177% the day before on successful cancer vaccine trial news, then dropped roughly 23.55% on Thursday as biotech shares retreated more broadly. The move was described as a technical correction following an event-driven spike. The report said the medium- to long-term case still depends on future trial data and commercialization progress, while position sizing remains critical in such high-volatility names.
Anthropic: IPO timeline moves up
According to the report, Anthropic could publicly file IPO documents as early as the end of this month, and the fundraising size may match or exceed SpaceX’s previous record. The company posted more than $11.5 billion in second-quarter revenue, with an annualized run rate of $65 billion, and is also seeking to complete a revolving credit facility of more than $10 billion.
The report said investors are weighing the mix of high growth and high losses, as well as governance questions tied to a super-voting share structure. With AI listings moving faster, it argued, the market may need to revisit valuation frameworks for the sector. Formal filing timing and offering size are the next two points to watch.
Broadcom: reported talks on roughly $100 billion in AI debt financing
Bitget said Broadcom is reportedly in talks with Blackstone, Apollo and others on around $100 billion in debt financing. The funding would support chip and infrastructure purchases by AI companies including Anthropic. Analysts cited in the report said such a deal could help Broadcom expand its AI chip share and sharpen competition with Nvidia. At the same time, financing on this scale underlines how elevated AI infrastructure spending remains. The report said execution and the eventual effect on orders are the practical next checkpoints.
Apple: tracks the broader market lower
Apple fell about 1.75%, according to the report. In an environment shaped by higher yields and weaker risk appetite, Bitget said even a consumer electronics heavyweight struggled to resist the broader market pullback. The report kept the medium-term focus on new products and services, while treating the near-term move as market-driven.
Strategy: crypto beta stays in favor
Strategy gained about 7.81%, while Coinbase rose about 7.58%. The report said both stocks continued to benefit from Bitcoin’s strength and policy expectations. It added that crypto prices and regulatory narratives remain the key drivers here, with volatility well above that of conventional technology shares.
Market and project updates
Grayscale publishes Zcash report
The report said Grayscale released research on Zcash arguing that as AI enables new forms of financial surveillance, Zcash’s privacy features could become a necessary function in the AI era. Zcash uses zero-knowledge proofs to enable shielded transactions that hide senders, receivers and amounts, giving it cash-like privacy properties.
Shielded transactions now account for about 90% of Zcash transaction volume, with roughly 4.2 million ZEC in shielded supply, or 25% of circulating supply, according to the report. Grayscale put Zcash’s market value at about $8 billion, equal to just 0.6% of the broader “monetary crypto assets” category, which it valued at $1.4 trillion. If that category share were to reach 5%, the report said, ZEC would be worth nine times its current value. Grayscale argued that current pricing reflects an assumption that privacy will stay marginal. If investors decide privacy deserves even a modest premium, current valuation may be too low. The report also mentioned long-term risks including regulation and quantum computing, while saying Zcash’s shielded technology and selective disclosure tools offer a path toward compliance.
CoinDesk flags a possible Bitcoin golden cross
Citing CoinDesk, the report said Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum is bringing it closer to a technical pattern widely seen as a long-term bullish signal. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average now stands at about $63,976, while the 200-day moving average is about $69,005. If the 50-day average keeps rising and crosses above the 200-day line, the market may get a golden cross signal.
The 200-day moving average is commonly used to judge long-term trend direction. Holding above it is often read as a shift from bear market conditions toward a bull market, while falling below it may suggest a weaker long-term trend. The report said Bitcoin has remained below the 200-day moving average since October 2025, when BTC was around $110,000. It also noted that Bitcoin formed golden crosses in February 2023, October 2023, October 2024 and April 2025, with further upside following each time. Even so, the report cautioned that a golden cross is usually confirmed only after a strong advance, meaning some of the early move may already be gone by then. A sharp drop back below the 200-day average could also break the bullish case.
Bessent’s buyback remarks and Mark Connors’ BTC view
The report also linked Treasury policy to Bitcoin. It said long-bond investor and macro strategist Mark Connors sees regular Treasury buybacks as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg higher and as a condition that could help BTC move toward a $180,000 target.
According to Bitget’s summary, Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the government expects to conduct regular long-dated Treasury buybacks and may increase the scale beyond the previously announced $4 billion plan. Bessent said the goal is to stabilize the bond market and make sure yields reflect economic fundamentals. After the remarks, Bitcoin rose further and at one point approached $73,000.
Connors said Treasury intervention in the bond market signals that the government is responding to pressure from rising long-term borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields tend to pull capital into government debt and away from risk assets, including crypto. If buybacks support bond prices and push yields lower, he argued, some of that macro pressure on Bitcoin could ease.
Other items
- Anthropic may publicly file for an IPO by the end of August, with a size that could match SpaceX.
- Broadcom is reportedly discussing about $100 billion in AI-related debt financing.
- Trump signed a commercial space memorandum targeting an average of 1,000 launches per year before 2030.
Today’s calendar
PMI data and Jackson Hole expectations in focus
The report’s event calendar highlighted three items: the S&P Global PMI flash reading as a check on growth momentum, expectations ahead of Warsh’s Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech, and the timing of Anthropic’s IPO filing.
For Aug. 21, the key release is the U.S. S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMI. Bitget said traders will use the data to test economic expansion momentum and soft-landing continuity.
Institutional view
The report’s closing view was that the Treasury buyback effect faded quickly, while rising long-end yields and higher oil prices together hurt risk appetite in U.S. equities. Bessent has flagged new fiscal consolidation measures, but the market remains cautious on how much they will change. Anthropic’s faster IPO process and Broadcom’s reported financing talks show AI capital spending is still running at a high level. Crypto, by contrast, has remained relatively resilient against the pullback in U.S. stocks under the support of policy narratives.
Bitget said the main variables to watch now are yields, PMI data and the upcoming Jackson Hole speech, while maintaining a cautious stance toward richly valued growth stocks.
