Global risk assets are still pushing higher, but the real force behind capital flows is no longer just corporate earnings or AI themes, according to a Bitunix analyst cited by BlockBeats on Aug. 5. The analyst said markets are now re-evaluating institutional credibility and policy execution after governments moved in parallel across energy, exchange rates, supply chains and monetary policy.
AI spending remains the main growth driver
The analysis said AI capital expenditure is still the market’s most important growth engine. Anthropic signed a computing services agreement worth as much as $10 billion with Volta Infra, while Samsung introduced its new V10 V-NAND, sharply increasing storage density. Together, those developments were presented as fresh evidence that AI infrastructure is still in a rapid expansion phase.
Investors have continued to pay a premium for computing power, storage and semiconductor supply chains. In the analyst’s view, that also shows companies are still willing to take on higher capital costs in exchange for future competitive advantages. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials have delivered more hawkish signals, saying current rate levels are still not enough to effectively contain inflation. That has created a market setup where AI investment and high interest rates are coexisting.
Under that setup, attention is expected to shift toward whether companies have enough cash flow and earnings strength to support heavy capital spending, instead of relying only on multiple expansion to lift share prices.
Energy negotiations and administrative tools are feeding into pricing
The analysis also highlighted a shift in the energy market. Talks over the Strait of Hormuz have made substantive progress, and the outline of a US-Iran agreement is gradually taking shape. Discussions have even started on possible European participation in mine-clearing efforts and the creation of a joint maintenance mechanism. That, the analyst said, suggests the parties are moving away from military confrontation and toward negotiations over shipping order and energy governance.
If the strait returns to normal shipping operations, even with higher maintenance costs, those costs would still be far below the supply risk created by war, which could keep pushing down the risk premium in energy markets.
The note also said the US government is considering extending Jones Act waivers to keep domestic energy costs down through administrative tools. In that reading, energy prices are no longer just an economic issue. They also have a direct effect on political approval and policy stability.
Exchange rates and supply-chain protection remain in focus
On currencies, the Bank of Japan has not yet entered the market to intervene, but US Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly said necessary steps would be taken to support the yen. The analyst said that points to exchange rates increasingly becoming part of the policy toolkit rather than being left entirely to market pricing.
At the same time, the US is still studying a broader scope for metal tariffs, indicating that supply-chain protection policies are likely to remain in place. As a result, global manufacturing costs and inflation pressure may not ease completely in the short term.
Stocks at highs, but hedging demand is also rising
Michael Burry has again warned that markets could face a repeat of a 1987-style crash. The analysis argued, however, that his view is based more on structural risks created by leverage and compressed volatility than on any clear deterioration in fundamentals.
It also noted that US stocks have reached fresh highs while the VIX has risen at the same time. That suggests markets are not ignoring underlying risks. Instead, asset prices are being pushed higher through a mix of options hedging and leveraged trading.
In that structure, the market can still keep an upward base as long as AI capital spending, corporate earnings and policy credibility hold up. But if inflation heats up again, the Federal Reserve tightens further, or talks over the Strait of Hormuz run into trouble again, richly valued technology shares and high-leverage strategies could become the main source of a renewed volatility spike.
Three near-term market lines to watch
In the near term, the analysis said markets will focus on whether a Strait of Hormuz agreement is formally finalized, what Federal Reserve officials say next about the rate path, and whether investment in AI infrastructure keeps accelerating. Those three lines are expected to shape a new balance between global capital costs, energy prices and technology valuations, and to serve as the core basis for pricing risk assets going forward.