US long-end yields are no longer being driven only by expectations for Federal Reserve policy, according to a Bitunix analyst cited by BlockBeats on Oct. 8. The bigger question now is whether the Treasury’s own debt-management tools can materially change how the market prices long-dated government debt.
BlockBeats said Bessent raised the buyback cap for 10-year to 30-year US Treasurys to $6 billion, with part of the intent aimed at improving liquidity in older issues. The move has not produced the result policymakers may have wanted. The 10-year yield still rose to 5.35%, while the 30-year yield moved close to 5.7%, even higher than levels seen before the buyback expansion in August.
Market is reassessing what is pushing yields higher
With a larger policy toolset failing to push long-end yields down, the market is rethinking the core drivers. The analyst said the main forces may still be heavy supply, fiscal deficits, and a higher term premium demanded by investors.
That is also the key point behind Warren’s criticism of what the report described as "chaotic intervention" by the Treasury. Actual buyback volumes remain below the announced cap, which suggests the Treasury is not acting as an unconditional backstop. If buybacks are funded through TGA cash balances or short-term bill issuance, that would only change the maturity structure of financing rather than remove the government’s overall borrowing need.
In that framing, policy can improve market microstructure, but it may not be enough to absorb the long-term rate pressure created by fiscal expansion.
Higher Treasury yields are changing asset comparisons
The report said elevated long-bond yields are reshaping relative value across major asset classes. A Bank of America model suggests the S&P 500 could return less than 5% over the next 10 years, while Treasurys already offer more attractive starting yields.
Gold falling below $4,100 was cited as another sign of the shift. When the US dollar and real yields rise at the same time, safe-haven demand may not be enough to offset the cost of holding gold.
BTC levels in focus
For BTC, the analyst said the daily chart remains in a high-level consolidation range, with price around $83,487. Liquidity is sitting near $87,000 on the upside, while $82,929 is the key near-term support area.
If that level breaks, the next structural demand zones would be $76,000 to $80,000 and then $70,000 to $73,000.
The report said the next key thing to watch is not how much the Treasury can buy back, but whether long-end yields can stabilize on their own in a high-supply environment. If 10-year and 30-year rates keep rising, the opportunity cost of holding equities, gold, and crypto assets will move higher. If elevated yields begin to suppress economic activity and capital spending, bonds could regain room for price recovery.
What the market is testing now, the analyst said, is whether US fiscal policy can actually control the long-term cost of capital.