Bitcoin is beginning to break away from U.S. equities and trade in line with gold, according to André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise.
In the note, Dragosch revisited one of the oldest arguments around Bitcoin: whether it can really be called "digital gold." Supporters have long leaned on first principles, saying Bitcoin shares gold’s scarcity, fungibility and divisibility, and can be held without relying on a third-party custodian. Critics have pointed to market history instead, arguing that Bitcoin’s price behavior has looked nothing like gold, with repeated drawdowns of 50% to 80%, a much shorter history, and weaker acceptance as a store-of-value asset.
August macro developments pushed Bitcoin and gold in the same direction
Bitwise said a major macro event hit markets in August. Yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries moved higher, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened by stepping up purchases of long-dated bonds. In Dragosch’s reading, the move signaled that markets may be entering a new era of financial repression and yield curve control.
After the intervention, Bitcoin logged its strongest weekly rise since March 2024, climbing 22.4%. Gold rose about 5% over the same week, while U.S. stocks fell. Bitwise argued that many investors missed the broader point: in this stretch, Bitcoin and gold moved in close sync.
Bitcoin-gold rolling correlation hit a near six-year high
Using data from Bitwise Asset Management and the Bloomberg Terminal, and spot gold prices for the period from April 13, 2015 to Aug. 31, 2026, the report said Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with gold climbed to its highest level in nearly six years.
The last time the relationship reached a similar level was during the 2020 pandemic period, when multiple rounds of global fiscal and monetary easing were rolled out. Bitwise said the pattern is notable: the two periods in which governments carried out large-scale macro intervention were also the two periods when Bitcoin’s correlation with gold peaked.
Correlation with U.S. stocks fell to a one-year low
As Bitcoin moved closer to gold, its relationship with equities weakened. Bitwise said Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks has dropped to a one-year low, pointing to a decoupling between hard assets and the equity market.
That weakens the argument that Bitcoin is simply a leveraged technology growth stock, the report said. Based on Bitwise Asset Management and Bloomberg Terminal data for April 13, 2015 to Aug. 31, 2026, Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation against the Nasdaq 100 Total Return Index has pulled back from earlier highs.
Bitcoin also remains negatively correlated with the dollar
Bitwise also pointed to a pronounced negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY. When the dollar comes under pressure, both Bitcoin and gold have tended to benefit.
For the same April 13, 2015 to Aug. 31, 2026 window, the report said Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with DXY stayed in negative territory.
Bitwise says investors are pairing Bitcoin with gold as a hedge
Bitwise stressed that Bitcoin is not the same thing as gold. Gold is a mature store-of-value asset shaped by thousands of years of history, while Bitcoin is less than 20 years old and remains a newer asset class. When macro risk fades from the center of the market, the two can still diverge sharply.
But when macro conditions tighten and currency debasement risk becomes more important, the line between choosing gold and choosing Bitcoin is starting to blur, the report said. In those periods, Bitcoin begins to behave like a higher-beta version of gold.
Bitwise added that gold sits in a market worth about $30 trillion, with central banks, sovereign institutions and large asset-allocation firms among its major holders. That pool of capital is far larger than the venture and crypto-native capital base that shaped Bitcoin’s earlier pricing. If Bitcoin formally joins the store-of-value asset bucket, its valuation framework would be measured against a much larger benchmark market.
From the correlation data, Bitwise drew a direct conclusion: investors are no longer debating whether to use gold or Bitcoin to hedge currency debasement, but are increasingly allocating to both at the same time. The report said Bitcoin has been priced as a risk asset for the past 15 years; if the current period of strong correlation with gold continues, its valuation narrative over the next 15 years could look very different.