‹ BackNewsDXY

DXY

Dollar Index DXY Rises to a Two-Month High of 101.62
Data shows Bitcoin’s 90-day link to the dollar index explains only 17% of daily moves
Crypto Rallies After Fed Rate Hike as Bitcoin Draws Comparisons to Early 2022
Dollar Index Rises About 1.1% This Week as Fed Rate-Hike Signal Lifts Greenback
Citi says hawkish Fed has strengthened the dollar’s near-term case, with DXY seen at 101.15
Bitcoin
2026-09-18 05:30:21

Nine Years of Data Reframe Bitcoin’s Macro Pricing: ETF Era Brought Slower Transmission and a Bigger Stablecoin Role

A long-form analysis published by Foresight revisits how Bitcoin is priced against macro forces using data from Jan. 2017 to Sept. 15, 2026, covering 2,438 trading days and 62 Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The core argument is not that BTC has broken away from the Federal Reserve, but that the transmission mechanism has changed. In the study, same-day reactions to tighter Fed signals look weak in daily data, yet the effect builds over the following days and weeks, especially after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11, 2024. The article says BTC’s annualized volatility fell from 75.1% before ETF approval to 48.5% after, while U.S. equities gained more influence in short-term price discovery. Even so, Bitcoin did not simply become another Nasdaq trade: post-ETF, a single-factor Nasdaq 100 regression explains only 3.5% of BTC volatility. The piece also argues that crypto-native liquidity now matters more than many simple macro narratives suggest. While ln(BTC) and ln(M2) show no cointegration in the sample, ln(BTC) and ln(total stablecoin market cap) do, with an Engle-Granger test statistic of -4.160 and a p-value of 0.0042. Stablecoins, however, are presented as a slow-moving valuation anchor rather than a short-term trading signal. The broader conclusion is that Bitcoin behaves differently across regimes: as a macro risk asset after tighter Fed shocks, as a high-beta amplifier during panic, as a more independent crypto-native asset when stablecoin growth is strong, and at times as an early risk signal because it trades 24/7.

580
Nine Years of Data Reframe Bitcoin’s Macro Pricing: ETF Era Brought Slower Transmission and a Bigger Stablecoin Role