The U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, has rebounded in recent sessions and touched 101.69 on Tuesday, its highest level in two months. Since Sept. 9, the index has climbed about 2.6%. That kind of move is often seen as a negative signal for dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and gold, but data cited by BlockTempo suggests the dollar’s actual influence on Bitcoin is far smaller than many traders assume.
90-day correlation came in at -0.41, with an R² of 0.17
According to TradingView data cited in the report, Bitcoin’s daily return correlation with DXY over the past 90 trading days was -0.41. That points to an inverse relationship, but not a particularly strong one.
The article says that correlation translates to an R² value of just 0.17, meaning the dollar index explains only 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return variation. The remaining 83% is driven by other factors. On that basis, the report argues that Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly decoupling from the dollar and is being led more by crypto-specific market forces.
The 30-day reading was largely propped up by two sessions
On a 30-day window, the correlation was -0.45, which appears slightly stronger. But the report says that figure was driven mainly by price action on Aug. 19 and Sept. 3.
On both of those days, Bitcoin rose by more than 5% while the dollar declined. If those two outliers are removed, the 30-day correlation falls to -0.19, close to no meaningful relationship.
Since January 2020, the average correlation has been only -0.14
Looking at a longer time frame, from January 2020 to now, the average 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and DXY was just -0.14, according to the report. It adds that the relationship turned positive several times during that period and even reached +0.22 in November 2024.
That suggests Bitcoin and the dollar do not always move in opposite directions. In some periods, they have moved the same way.
Bitcoin is holding around $83,000 to $84,000 after its recent pullback
On price action, the article says Bitcoin pulled back after reaching $87,400 on Sept. 21 and is now holding in the $83,000 to $84,000 range. It identifies that zone as the same area where Bitcoin topped out before its May decline, when a break below that level was followed by a drop to $57,000.
The report says bulls need to defend that range to keep broader bullish momentum intact.
DXY remains above the Ichimoku cloud but has not cleared 101.80
The dollar index is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, a sign of stronger momentum, though it has not yet broken above 101.80, the high set on June 24.
If DXY establishes itself above that level, the report says it could end the consolidation pattern that has been in place since May 2025 and lead to a faster advance.
October nonfarm payrolls are the next data point in focus
The article says Bitcoin’s weak correlation with the dollar supports the view that it is becoming an effective diversification tool in portfolios. Even when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin’s path is shaped more by its own supply and demand, ETF flows and market sentiment than by a simple inverse relationship with DXY.
For this week, the report highlights the upcoming October nonfarm payroll release. Barclays is cited as forecasting just 50,000 new jobs, while prediction markets are described as split roughly 50-50 on whether the number will come in above 100,000. The report says that gap in expectations could affect short-term moves in both the dollar and Bitcoin.
It adds that if payrolls come in stronger than expected, DXY could set a fresh high. Even so, the piece says Bitcoin still has a strong chance of holding support around $83,000, given that the 90-day data already shows the price link between the two markets is limited.